Upstart Just Applied for a National Bank Charter After a Tough Quarter. Could That Change the AI Lending Story?

Upstart Holdings (UPST +0.54%) stock has been humbled by years of middling performance amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. It has made some progress in recent quarters, but the market didn't embrace its latest quarterly earnings report. Headwinds remain, and the road back looks long and complicated.

Management recently announced that it has applied for a bank charter. It sees that as an opportunity to lower funding costs and expand its business, and it envisions disrupting the banking industry as "the first bank built from the ground up on AI." Could this change its story and boost its stock?

The benefits of being a bank

Upstart operates a credit evaluation platform that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to more accurately identify good borrowers than the traditional credit score, which it sees as limited. When investors first discovered Upstart, one of the attractive features was that it doesn't actually hold any of the debt that it helps underwrite; it sells the loans back to institutional investors. Low exposure to bad debt was a major plus.

The market didn't see it as a positive development when the company began holding some of the loans on its balance sheet, and it has raised several funding rounds to cover the loans even before they're written off. For example, it recently announced a deal with Fortress Investment Group to buy $1.25 billion of consumer loans over the next 15 months.

Image source: Getty Images.

For now, Upstart's role is more of a middleman between the partner banks and credit unions that use its platform to identify good credit and the institutional investors that buy the loans. Becoming a bank would completely change its model from a platform to a lender, but being built on a foundation of AI, it would incorporate its machine learning models into its business to create something it envisions as the future of banking.

Upstart benefits from the bank charter by gaining access to new and recurring funding sources through deposits. As a bank, it wouldn't need to rely on the wholesale reselling of loans to partnering funders. Deposits are seen as a cheaper way to get funds, since banks typically give a low interest rate on deposit accounts like checking and savings accounts. It would also be able to hold loans on its books for longer and accrue the associated interest charges.

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NASDAQ: UPST

Upstart

Today's Change

(0.54%) $0.15

Current Price

$28.09

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$2.7B

Day's Range

$26.79 - $28.58

52wk Range

$23.96 - $87.30

Volume

139K

Avg Vol

4.9M

Gross Margin

97.87%

Will this change the banking landscape?

Digital banking is becoming a crowded space. All the large banks have a strong digital presence, and disruptors like SoFi Technologies and Chyme are gaining momentum. Nu Holdings recently received a U.S. bank charter and also uses AI algorithms to identify good credit. SoFi has a partnership with Upstart competitor Pagaya Technologies, so Upstart's bank looks less like a groundbreaking initiative and more like a way to expand its business and lower its funding costs.

That could still be beneficial, but there could be other complications with revamping its business into something else entirely. Besides the competition and figuring out a way to stand out, it would have to deal with rigorous government regulations.

Upstart stock is down 33% this year, but it's not necessarily time to buy on the dip.