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Just caught the Aussie breaking through 0.7200 again on Thursday - pretty wild move considering we had solid US GDP and inflation data that should've supported the Dollar. But Japan's FX intervention basically flipped everything on its head. The USD got hammered across the board, dropping nearly 1% with the DXY sliding toward 98 after USD/JPY tanked over 400 pips. First time Japan stepped in like this in almost two years, and it completely overshadowed the US economic numbers.
Australia's quarterly CPI came in hotter than expected at 4.1%, up from 3.6%, which has money markets now pricing in a 70% chance the RBA hikes to 4.35% at their May 5 meeting. That's definitely supporting the Aussie. Meanwhile, the US is showing mixed signals - GDP grew 2% in Q1 (a bit below the 2.3% forecast), Core PCE hit 3.2% year-over-year, and jobless claims came in better than expected at 189K. So you've got conflicting narratives, but the Japan intervention is clearly the main driver here.
Looking at the technicals, AUD/USD is sitting pretty at 0.7201 with support holding around 0.7074 and the 50-200 day moving average band near 0.7059. If we see a proper push higher, resistance is showing up around 0.7558. For anyone tracking euro conversions - if you're thinking about 3500 euro to aud at these levels, you're getting decent value with the Aussie this strong. The momentum looks solid but not overextended yet based on the RSI near 61. Curious to see if this holds or if we get a pullback once the dust settles from Japan's intervention.