Recently reviewed the performance of the RMB exchange rate over the past year or so, and it’s quite interesting. From the end of 2025 until now, I’ve noticed that the accuracy of China-U.S. exchange rate forecasts has become increasingly scrutinized because it directly impacts the profits of those involved in foreign exchange investments.

Last year, the trend of the RMB against the US dollar was quite turbulent. In the first half of the year, it was heavily pressured by global tariff policies and a strong dollar, with offshore RMB once breaking through 7.40, hitting a new low since 2015. But in the second half, as China-U.S. relations eased and the dollar index weakened, the RMB began to rebound. By November 2025, the RMB even appreciated to below 7.08, reaching a nearly one-year high. Looking back now, this appreciation indeed marked an important turning point.

Regarding China-U.S. exchange rate forecasts, international investment banks’ views last year were quite optimistic. Deutsche Bank predicted that the RMB would appreciate to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley believed the dollar would continue to weaken, expecting the dollar index to fall back to 89 by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs even boldly predicted that the RMB was actually undervalued by about 15%, with a chance to rise to 7.0 in the next 12 months.

Now, looking at the middle of 2026, the logic behind these predictions still holds up. The factors supporting the RMB are indeed in effect: China’s export performance remains resilient, foreign capital is gradually reallocating into RMB assets, and the dollar index is indeed weak. But as for rapid appreciation in the short term, the likelihood is still low; the exchange rate is more likely to fluctuate within a range.

From an investment perspective, investing in RMB-related currency pairs can still be profitable now, but the key lies in timing and grasping the overall trend. I believe there are three variables to focus on: the Fed’s pace of interest rate cuts, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the People’s Bank of China’s guidance signals for the RMB midpoint.

Speaking of which, many people ask how to invest in RMB. Actually, there are quite a few options: opening a foreign exchange account at a bank, working with forex brokers, or through futures exchanges. If you want to leverage to amplify returns, forex margin trading platforms offer flexible tools supporting two-way trading, so whether the RMB appreciates or depreciates, there’s a chance to profit.

Overall, the core of China-U.S. exchange rate forecasts still depends on the macro environment. Central bank policies, economic data, dollar trends, and official guidance—all these factors need to be monitored. As long as you grasp these big directions, even if there are short- to medium-term fluctuations, the long-term profit potential remains relatively high. Because of its large trading volume and transparent information, the forex market remains a relatively fair investment channel for ordinary investors.