I have been studying the trend of the USD to RMB exchange rate recently, and I feel this topic is indeed worth paying attention to. Looking at the performance since 2025, the RMB has experienced an interesting reversal—finally breaking the three-year continuous depreciation trend, showing quite a bit of resilience.

Speaking of this turning point, it’s really worth reviewing. In the first half of the year, the RMB was quite weak, once breaking through the 7.40 level, setting a new record since 2015. But in the second half, as China-U.S. trade negotiations eased and the US dollar index weakened, the RMB began to rebound. Recently, driven by multiple positive factors, the RMB appreciated against the dollar to below 7.08, even touching 7.0765, which is the highest in nearly a year.

Many international investment banks are now optimistic about the RMB’s future performance. Deutsche Bank predicts the USD to RMB exchange rate will rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley also expects the RMB to appreciate gradually, forecasting that by the end of 2026, the dollar index may fall back to 89, with the RMB exchange rate possibly reaching around 7.05. Goldman Sachs further pointed out in a report that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued by 12% compared to the ten-year average, and based on this logic, the USD to RMB rate could rise to 7.0 within the next 12 months.

Analyzing further, there are quite a few factors supporting the RMB’s strength. China’s export performance has remained resilient, the trend of foreign capital reallocating into RMB assets is taking shape, and the US dollar index remains structurally weak. But can we say it’s completely certain? Not entirely—there are still some variables to watch closely, such as the specific trajectory of the dollar index, the stability of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate cuts.

Historically, the RMB exchange rate is mainly driven by a few factors. The central bank’s monetary policy directly influences supply expectations, economic data determine foreign investment inflows, and the dollar’s movement is a direct benchmark. For example, in 2017, Europe’s economic recovery was stronger than the US, the European Central Bank signaled tightening, and the euro rose, causing the dollar index to plunge 15% throughout the year. During the same period, the USD to RMB exchange rate also declined, showing a high correlation.

To judge the future trend of the USD to RMB exchange rate, you can observe from these angles: first, the monetary policy stance of the central bank—loose policies usually put pressure on the RMB, but if combined with strong fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, it can be a long-term positive; second, pay attention to economic indicators like GDP, PMI, CPI—good economic performance attracts sustained foreign investment; third, track the Federal Reserve’s policies and the dollar index movements; fourth, watch for official guidance signals on the exchange rate.

As for investing in RMB-related currency pairs, there are indeed opportunities now, but timing is key. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain relatively strong, but the possibility of rapid appreciation below 7.0 is not very high. Investors can open foreign exchange accounts through commercial banks or trade via forex broker platforms. Many platforms support two-way trading and leverage, meaning profits can be made from both rising and falling prices, but leverage also amplifies risks, so it’s important to set it reasonably based on your own situation.

Overall, the USD to RMB exchange rate is at an interesting cyclical turning point. The depreciation cycle that began in 2022 may have ended, and the RMB could enter a new appreciation phase. However, there will still be short- to medium-term fluctuations, and by understanding the key influencing factors mentioned above, investors can greatly improve their chances of profit. The forex market is mainly driven by macro factors; data released by various countries are transparent, and with large trading volumes and two-way operations, it remains a relatively fair investment option for individual investors.