‍#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍#Polymarket百U战神挑战
My Major Event Prediction: The Federal Reserve’s Decision at the June Meeting

As May moves into the second half, with key U.S. economic data from April released one after another, CPI and PPI both have surged at the same time, and the market naturally has turned its attention to the Federal Reserve’s decision at the June meeting. My bet is that the Fed’s decision in June will not change. The reasons are as follows:

1. ‌Persistent inflationary pressure‌:

April CPI rose by ‌3.8%‌ year over year (above the ‌3%‌ ideal target), and PPI jumped even more by ‌6%‌, showing that cost-push inflation has not eased;

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) remains at ‌3.5%‌ or above, with significant price stickiness in services, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep a tight stance.

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2. ‌A steady employment market‌:

May’s non-farm payroll data is expected to add ‌180,000‌ jobs, and the unemployment rate remains stable at ‌3.9%‌ at a low level, indicating sufficient economic resilience—there’s no need to stimulate employment through rate cuts.

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3. ‌The high-interest-rate environment continues‌:

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly climbed to ‌5.16%‌ (a new high since 2007), reflecting that the market has priced in “higher for longer”;

In recent remarks, Fed officials have been speaking frequently about “data dependence,” but the overall tone remains hawkish—‌not a single person clearly supports a rate cut in June‌.

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4. ‌Considering the lag effect of policy‌:

With current interest rates at the ‌5.25%-5.5%‌ range—the highest level in twenty years—the policy’s suppressive effect on the economy is still gradually becoming evident;

The Fed tends to watch the effects of existing policies and avoid easing too early, which could trigger a rebound in inflation.

My betting strategy is to allocate large amounts of capital. When the probability of rate cuts or rate hikes increases, I bet that interest rates will remain unchanged, and I earn from volatility.