‍#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍#Polymarket百U战神挑战
My Major Event Prediction: The Winner of the 2028 Presidential Election

In the blink of an eye, Trump’s term has already passed halfway. In the upcoming 2028 presidential election, which next U.S. president will Trump “hand the baton” to? My bet is on Democrat Gavin Newsom, and my reasoning is as follows:

‌1. Political capital and exposure advantage‌:

As Governor of California, Newsom leads the state with the largest population and the biggest economic output in the U.S., and has long been setting the national agenda on issues such as climate policy, technology regulation, and social welfare—accumulating deep political resources;

After Trump returns to the White House, Newsom has become a symbol of the Democratic “resistance movement,” frequently speaking out through the media and boosting his national visibility.

‌

2. Favorable internal landscape for the Democratic Party‌:

Biden has made it clear that he will not seek re-election. Harris’s ability is limited by her performance in office, and her approval ratings have not reached an ideal level—leaving Newsom room for “generational replacement”;

The Democratic Party urgently needs a candidate who can integrate progressives and moderates, who has both proven governance results and broad national appeal. Newsom’s firm stances on issues such as abortion rights, gun control, and green energy fit this profile.

‌

3. Solid campaign foundation‌:

California has a Democratic supermajority in Electoral College votes (55 votes), providing Newsom with a stable pool of supporters;

He has strong fundraising ability, close ties to Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and labor unions, and the capacity to mobilize the funds required for a nationwide campaign.

‌

4. Clear policy narrative‌:

Emphasizing “climate leadership” and “tech ethics governance,” aligning with the concerns of young voters;

Promoting the “California Model” for export, stressing that innovation at the state level can be replicated as national policy, and forming a governance narrative that distinguishes him from traditional candidates.

‌

5. High opponent uncertainty‌:

On the Republican side, although Trump still has influence, he faces legal challenges and health-related doubts, and his successor has not yet been clearly determined;

If the Republican nomination goes to a far-right candidate or a newcomer, Newsom—as an experienced incumbent governor—will be more attractive to moderate voters.