Recently, I've been paying close attention to the relationship between the US-Iran situation and oil prices, and I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon: the US dollar, crude oil, and US Treasury yields are all strengthening simultaneously. The signals behind this deserve careful analysis.

First, let's talk about the deadlock on the US-Iran side. Both parties have been "fighting without breaking," with Iran threatening to raise uranium enrichment to 90%, while Trump has said there's no rush to resolve the issue. The overall situation is stuck there. Meanwhile, US non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, adding 115k jobs in April, marking the largest two-month growth since 2024, which directly reinforces the dollar’s advantage in risk environments.

But there's a contradiction here. Inflationary pressures combined with economic resilience are pushing US Treasury yields higher, significantly weakening the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations for the year, with the market even betting on a 37% chance of rate hikes within the year. This is completely opposite to Trump’s desire to lower interest rates. When the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, funds start flowing out of chip and semiconductor sectors, as investors worry that high interest rates will worsen the US debt situation.

Looking at the international oil price chart, WTI crude oil is currently oscillating around the $100 mark. Goldman Sachs believes that although the Strait blockade has lasted for 10 weeks, the actual damage to the global economy remains moderate, mainly because oil prices have risen far less than expected, and factors like China’s shift to renewable energy, the AI boom, and a loose financial environment have provided buffers.

However, I am more concerned about inventory issues. If oil inventories are rapidly reduced in the short term, this balance will be broken. Bloomberg estimates that under the Strait blockade, global oil reserves could reach emergency levels in about eight months. Saudi Aramco’s CEO has warned that if supply disruptions continue, the global oil market could lose about 100 million barrels of supply per week, meaning that members of the OECD, like Japan and Europe, will soon need to release strategic reserves.

JPMorgan’s analysis points out that Iran still has about 40 million barrels of onshore oil storage capacity, enough to store 22 days of exports. They believe Iran will start reducing production around the 16th day after exports come to a complete halt, with full shutdown in about 30 days.

Honestly, this "delicate balance" is unlikely to last long. The intensity of US-Iran tensions, further declines in inventory data, and Iran’s possible production cuts could all increase oil price volatility. At the same time, we need to keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. Once the secondary effects of high oil prices manifest further, it could push Treasury yields higher and impact the global economy.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of WTI crude oil shows an overall high-level consolidation pattern. If it can hold above $100, there’s potential for further rebound to challenge resistance at $108 or even $115. In the short term, key time windows around June should be closely monitored.

My view is that investors can consider this current situation as a large-range trading setup, but it’s crucial to keep a close watch on inventory data and timing changes. This balance could be broken at any moment, and then the international oil price chart will show a clear directional move.