I just saw interesting information about the gold price trend today that caused a major market movement due to news from Axios reporting that the White House is close to reaching an agreement with Tehran in a 14-point document. This is the closest progress since the war began.

What’s notable is that the gold price this morning stood at $4,705 after bouncing up from a low of $4,509 within two days. That’s an increase of $188 in a short period, reflecting that the market is playing with maximum uncertainty, not hope.

The trend of gold prices today depends on Tehran’s response within 48 hours. The agreement requires Iran to halt uranium enrichment for 12-15 years in exchange for sanctions relief and asset releases. But the most critical issue is that Iran may need to export highly enriched uranium, which Tehran has always denied.

Trump recently threatened via Truth Social that if no deal is reached, a new bombing cycle will begin, and it will be more severe than before. The deadline is Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15. The White House wants to have a deal in hand beforehand to strengthen its bargaining power with Beijing. Iran itself is divided into two camps: one wanting to close the deal, and the other wanting prolonged negotiations. Therefore, the response within 48 hours may not be a straightforward “yes” or “no,” but possibly a request to delay or amend the terms.

On the labor market side, the April ADP employment change came out at 109,000 jobs, beating expectations of 99,000. This is the strongest private sector employment since January 2025. The impact on gold is that strong ADP figures support expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates high longer. But in this situation, the gold equation is entirely geopolitics, not usual macro factors.

From a technical perspective, the price broke through the EMA 20 and EMA 50 lines successfully and is testing the EMA 200 line around $4,720, which is a critical level to determine whether the big picture will reverse. The RSI is currently around 65, with a Bullish Divergence occurring at the low of $4,509, which is a genuine reversal signal.

The trend of gold prices today has three scenarios. The bullish scenario is if Iran signals acceptance of the MOU; the price will break above $4,724 and open the way to $4,769 and $4,833. The bearish scenario is if Iran rejects it; the price will fall below $4,680 and backtest $4,657 or even down to $4,509. The neutral scenario is the market waiting for a response, with prices fluctuating in the range of $4,680–$4,724.

For short-term traders, be especially cautious over the next 48 hours. Any news could trigger a $50–$100 move immediately. If the price pulls back to support around $4,680 and forms a reversal candle, buy with a stop loss at $4,657 and take profit at $4,720, or if the price breaks out and closes a 4-hour candle above $4,724, buy on momentum with a stop loss at $4,690 and a target of $4,769. For long-term holders, wait for confirmation with a daily close above $4,724 before buying.

If Iran rejects the MOU, it’s highly likely Trump will initiate bombing as threatened. Gold could spike to test $4,800 on the first day, and if bombing actually begins, it could reach $5,000 within days due to a strong return of safe-haven flows. Therefore, today’s gold price trend depends more on geopolitical developments than on general economic factors.