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If you are a trader or interested in studying market analysis, you must know the Dow Theory because it is a very important foundation for reading price charts.
The Dow Theory analyzes price movements by observing trends, believing that prices are like ocean waves with upward, downward, and sideways phases. This theory was developed by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the early 20th century and remains useful today.
What’s interesting is that the Dow Theory is not complicated at all. It divides trends into three types: the primary trend (lasting over a year), the intermediate trend (lasting 3 weeks to 3 months), and the minor trend (lasting no more than 3 weeks).
Once you understand the Dow Theory, you will see that the market has specific characteristics in each phase. In an uptrend, prices make new highs and higher lows. In a downtrend, the opposite occurs: prices make new lows and lower highs.
The key principles of the Dow Theory include six points: First, the market discounts all information; both good and bad news are reflected in the price. Second, trends exist at three levels as mentioned. Third, each trend has three phases: accumulation (when prices are low), a major rally (when traders enter), and distribution (when large investors exit).
Fourth, everything must be in agreement—if one index rises, another should rise too. Fifth, volume must follow the trend—if prices go up, volume should increase. Sixth, trends tend to continue until there is a clear signal of reversal.
The advantage of the Dow Theory is its stable foundation, helping to identify market direction effectively, and it emphasizes trading volume. The downside is that it can be slow because it requires confirmation, and it ignores fundamental data.
For actual trading, if you see an uptrend according to the Dow Theory, you can place a buy order. If you see a downtrend, you can place a sell order because you can trade both sides.
In summary, the Dow Theory is a useful tool for traders, helping to better understand the market. Although it’s not perfect, combining it with other techniques can make your trading more confident.