BTC rides the roller coaster, HYPE hits new highs | Special analysis invitation

After experiencing this week, it feels like riding a roller coaster.

This week, macro pressures were released in a concentrated manner—bond market collapse, rising expectations of interest rate hikes, oil prices breaking 110, BTC dropping below $78K, currently hanging in a critical range.

Structurally, I focused on analyzing two possible path projections since the February low: is a new upward trend already initiated, or is this a B-wave rebound within a major monthly adjustment? This judgment is not yet definitive, but the battle between bulls and bears in the $78,500–$79,500 zone is the most important observation window this week.

In terms of operations, I continue to hold a mid-term cautious stance with no positions, and have prepared two short-term plans around support and resistance levels, keeping positions below 30%, strictly adhering to stop-loss rules.

Summary of core trading views this week:

• Analysis of BTC multi-cycle trend structure (comparison of two future trend projections) (see Part One for details)

• BTC market forecast for this week and mid- to short-term trading strategies (see Part Two for details)

• HYPE daily chart trend structure analysis (see Part Three for details)

• HYPE market forecast for this week and short-term trading strategies (see Part Four for details)

Market validation of last week’s trading strategy and core views:

• Short-term trading effectiveness for BTC: Last week, Bitcoin completed a short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully earning approximately 2.02%. (see Table One)

• Market validation of BTC trend forecast: In last week’s article, we pointed out that the market is likely to fluctuate within a high range around $79,500–$80,600. The current market trend confirms our previous forecast.

1. Let’s first look at BTC’s projection

1. Analysis of BTC’s trend structure since the February low: two key path projections and bulls vs. bears battle

In previous weekly reviews, we compared Bitcoin’s daily adjustment structure since the October 2025 high (126,200 USD), proposing three main wave pattern projections. Currently, because in projection two (complex five-wave correction), Wave D rebound has significantly exceeded the previous Wave B, extending too far in time and disrupting the wave balance, its probability has greatly decreased. Therefore, the core market disagreement and future direction will focus on the other two projections. This content will deeply analyze and compare these two paths.

①, Path One: Correction ends, new upward trend has started (bullish view)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line chart:

Figure 1

As shown in (Figure 1), this view holds that: starting from the previous high of $126,200, the daily correction completed an A-B-C three-wave structure, with Wave C ending at $60,000 (the February 6 low). The trend has shifted from decline to an upward trend. Currently, Wave I (the initial upward wave) is underway. (This has been detailed in earlier articles, so not repeated here)

• Wave I (initial upward wave): from $60,000 (2026-02-06) to now, about 100 days have passed, with a maximum increase of approximately 38.1%, still ongoing.

• Potential Wave II (corrective wave): after Wave I ends, an adjustment wave will occur, with its low not falling below $60,000.

②, Path Two: Monthly-level correction structure, currently in Wave B rebound (bearish view)

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), this view suggests: starting from the previous high of $126,200, the correction may present a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave structure, with the current wave being Wave b rebound.

• Wave a (downward wave): from $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting about 4 months (around 122 days), with a maximum decline of about 52.5%.

• Wave b (rebound wave): from $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, lasting over 3 months (about 100 days), with a maximum rise of about 38.1%, still ongoing.

• Potential Wave c (downward wave): after Wave b rebound ends, an adjustment wave will occur, with its low possibly falling below $60,000.

③, From a monthly perspective: “Path Two” occurrence probability assessment

Bitcoin monthly chart shows: from January 1, 2017, to now (using only this complete data segment), it can be divided into four phases:

• Phase 0-1 (uptrend): from $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting about 59 months (~1774 days).

• Phase 1-2 (correction): from $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), about 13 months (~376 days). The deep correction of the previous uptrend (0-1) saw a maximum decline of about 77.57%.

• Phase 2-3 (uptrend): from $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), about 35 months (~1050 days). The main bull wave reaching a new high, with a maximum increase of about 715.46%.

• Phase 3-4 (correction): from $126,200 (2025-10-06) to now, about 7 months (~223 days), with a maximum decline of 52.46%, still ongoing. This is a correction of the previous main bull wave (2-3).

From a monthly perspective, the market is currently in phase 3-4 correction. If it follows the cycle alternation and time symmetry principles, and the amplitude and duration relate proportionally to the “1-2 correction” and “2-3 upward” phases, then the probability of the “Path Two” correction structure increases significantly. This suggests that the rebound since the February 6 low is only part of a larger correction.

④, Based on the above analysis of the two paths, both are plausible under current macro and technical conditions. To assess their relative likelihood, the key is to examine the nature of the rebound since the February 6 low, especially its duration and magnitude.

⑤, Our core views are:

• If this rebound weakens and ends soon, the probability of “Path Two” increasing significantly.

• Conversely, if the rebound extends in time and space, the likelihood of “Path One” increases accordingly.

For this, we propose an observable quantitative threshold: if the rebound surpasses the $90,000–$93,100 region, it could be a crucial factor confirming a fundamental change in market structure.

We also believe that, regardless of the path chosen, analyzing historical cycle patterns and macro liquidity expectations makes it more likely that a relatively reliable bottom structure will gradually form and be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.

2. Deep analysis of BTC hourly trend structure: (using 4-hour cycle)

Bitcoin _ 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 3

As shown in (Figure 3), from the departure of the “central zone C” segment (26-27) to now:

• The 4-hour chart can be subdivided into: 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32 segments, totaling 6 phases. Since segments 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31 overlap, they form a “central zone D”.

• Currently, the departure segment (31-32) is moving downward, having broken below the support of “central zone D”’s lower boundary ($79,200) and “central zone C”’s upper boundary ($78,500). If the price confirms a valid break below the $78,500–$79,200 zone, a daily-level correction structure may be triggered.

2. Next steps: how to operate

1. BTC forecast for this week:

Core point: the key is to observe the battle between bulls and bears over the $78,500–$79,500 zone. Gains or losses here will be an important basis for judging whether the price can maintain high-level consolidation or turn downward.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance: $78,500–$79,500 (near the upper and lower boundaries of the two central zones)

• Second resistance: $83,500–$84,500 (area of previous heavy long/short trading)

3. Key support levels:

• First support: $73,500–$75,000 (important previous support)

• Second support: $69,500–$70,500 (another key previous support)

4. Trading strategies for this week (excluding unexpected news):

①, Mid-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line chart: (Position monitoring model)

Figure 4

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 4), based on trading rules, the mid-term market direction remains unclear, so this week’s mid-term stance is to stay in cash and observe.

②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

③, To dynamically respond to market evolution, we have prepared two specific plans: A/B.

• Plan A: Rebound faces resistance, short at highs

• Entry: When the price rebounds to the $78,500–$79,500 zone and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative models, establish a short position below 30%.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $80,600.

• Exit: gradually close positions near key resistance levels when signals confirm.

• Plan B: Breaks support effectively, trend-following short

• Entry: When the price breaks below support of $73,500–$75,000 and top signals from models, establish a short position below 30%.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $76,500.

• Exit: gradually close positions near key support levels when signals confirm.

3. Now, let’s look at HYPE

BTC is still oscillating around $78K, with bulls and bears both unable to gain an advantage. Meanwhile, HYPE continues to hit new highs, up over 10% this week.

HYPE_ Daily K-line chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in (Figure 5), HYPE’s rally from the low of $20.46 on January 21 can be divided into nine segments: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9. Since the recent high of $47.30 (point 9) is new since the $20.46 low, the current structure remains in an upward trend on the daily chart.

2. In (Figure 5), because segments 1-2, 2-3, 3-4 overlap, they form a “rising central zone” on the daily level.

3. If HYPE’s price can stay above the key point of $38.41 (upper boundary of the central zone), the market may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily chart, digesting previous gains and accumulating directional momentum.

4. HYPE trend judgment and subsequent operation forecast

1. HYPE forecast for this week:

Core idea: focus on the battle between bulls and bears over the upper boundary of the central zone ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76).

2. Short-term strategies for HYPE this week:

Based on current market structure, we have optimized and prepared three short-term plans, centered on the “battle over the central zone upper boundary ($38.41)” and the previous high ($45.76).

• Plan A: Breakout to go long (trend continuation)

If the price effectively breaks and stabilizes above $45.76, combined with bottom signals from the two models, consider light long positions, with position size below 30%, and strict stop-loss.

• Plan B: Breakdown to go short (trend reversal)

If the price effectively breaks below $45.76 support, with top signals from the models, consider light short positions, with position size below 30%, and strict stop-loss.

• Plan C: Support-based long (trend reversal)

If the price retraces to around $38.41 and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals from the models, consider light long positions, with position size below 30%, and strict stop-loss.

5. Final remarks on results

1. Short-term operation review: (see Table One)

We strictly followed the plans, using our proprietary spread trading and momentum quantification signals, completing one short-term long operation last week with a profit of 2.02%.

①, Summary of Bitcoin short-term trades: (leverage *1)

Table One

②, Short-term trade review: (see Figure 6)

• Entry strategy:

a. When the price drops near $78,500 and shows stabilization signals, then breaks above the previous high of $79,500 resistance;

b. Spread trading model triggers bottom warning signals (white and red dots), resonating with momentum quantification signals.

Thus, we established a 20% long position at $79,812.

• Exit strategy:

a. When the price rebounds near $82,000 and shows resistance signals;

b. Spread trading model triggers strong top warning signals (green and white dots), resonating with momentum signals.

We closed all positions around $81,426.

• Summary: this trade yielded a profit of about 2.02%.

HYPE_30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum quantification + spread trading models)

Figure 6 (short-term trade illustration)

6. Special tips:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continue to track: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial markets are ever-changing; all analysis and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis, for personal trading logs only, and do not constitute investment advice or operational guidance. Market risks are inherent; invest cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this.