Historical patterns: When the Federal Reserve appoints a new official, they all want to make a statement. In 1979, Volcker raised interest rates to 20%, leading to a major recession but definitively ending inflation. In 1987, Greenspan immediately loosened policy after a market crash. In 2006, Bernanke continued easing, resulting in QE and a big hole. The most taboo action is doing nothing; Miller is a textbook example of this.

What will Waller do? The probability of raising interest rates is extremely low; Trump has half his wealth in commercial real estate, and raising rates would mean the president's bankruptcy. But he also won't happily cut rates— the dot plot hints at only one cut, while Wall Street bets on two or three. Waller's most likely way to make a statement: not cut rates, or even quietly drain liquidity. The effect is equivalent to raising rates, and it also prevents Powell from opposing.