Current long-term Bitcoin holders' losses have approached the peak levels of past bear markets, but the price has only retraced 52% from its high, far less than previous bear market depths. This indicates that losses are mainly concentrated among the "younger" long-term holders, that is, those who bought in the $80k to $125k range.

This structure has already shown signs in recent reports. Since July last year, long-term holders have cumulatively distributed over 2.5 million BTC, but the market has absorbed the selling pressure through strong spot demand, making net reduction data not very significant.
In May this year, when BTC was trading sideways around $80k, on-chain data already showed rare resonance of bullish and bearish signals in this area.
The key detail is the "youthful" nature of the losses. This points to investors who entered during the latter half of the previous bull market (2025) and have held until now becoming the main group with unrealized losses, while earlier holders have extremely low cost bases and have not yet reached breakeven.
Market resilience is actually supported by the steadfast holding of these "old money" investors and the continuous inflow of institutional funds, but for the price to break through previous highs, it needs to digest the heavy "second-wave" chip zone above.
On May 20, on-chain analyst Darkfost posted that the current Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) loss supply has reached 5.7 million BTC, comparable to the bear market peak levels of 5.96 million in 2015, 5.8 million in 2019, and 6.8 million in 2022.