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Bitcoin overall shows a oscillating downward trend, starting to decline from the high point around 77,850 early this morning, continuously losing short-term support during the oscillation, with the lowest dip reaching around 76,382. Currently trading near 76,619, the market is clearly dominated by bears. Ethereum's movement remains highly correlated with Bitcoin, declining in tandem from the high of 2,180, approaching a low near 2,125, showing a consistent weak follow-through pattern. The market's correlation is prominent, and the overall risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market has cooled down.
On the daily chart, the downward channel continues to extend effectively. After experiencing high-level oscillation and the gradual exhaustion of bullish momentum, the trend has clearly shifted to a oscillating decline. Bearish momentum accelerates, leading to a bearish arrangement of moving averages, with short-term averages like EMA15 and EMA30 turning downward, and prices trading below the moving average system. This pattern indicates that the trend is now clearly dominated by bears, with a strong likelihood of continued decline and structural stability. The MACD indicator's DIF has crossed below DEA to form a death cross, with green bars expanding, indicating that bearish forces dominate, and the risk of a pullback after divergence is being released. Regarding Bollinger Bands, prices are trading below the middle band, with the upper and middle bands narrowing continuously, and the lower band slowly rising, showing a consolidation pattern. The lower band support is around 76,000, while the upper band resistance is near 77,500-78,000. In the short term, a weak oscillation is expected to persist.
The four-hour chart continues to show a weak downward trend, with prices consistently constrained by the lower boundary of the channel, displaying technical features of a unilateral weak decline, further solidifying the daily trend of bearishness. The current market rhythm indicates that bearish forces are still being released, and short-term rebounds are not trend reversals but typical bear market corrections, mainly aimed at replenishing selling pressure for further declines. Today's trading strategy remains focused on shorting during rebounds.
Specific trading suggestions: Pay attention to the resistance at 77,000-77,800 and the two levels at 78,300 and 79,300. If these resistances hold, consider shorting from higher levels, targeting a decline of 500-6,000 points. Breaking above 79,300 and holding could signal a trend reversal.