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BTC has arrived near 76,000 as expected, and has also rebounded.
Will the subsequent market continue to fall?
Yesterday, I specifically told everyone that BTC would first drop to around 76,000, then rebound from near 76,000.
Yesterday, it just happened to fall to 76,000 and then started to rebound, exactly as I mentioned in my post—there's no difference at all.
Yesterday, our short position at 78,000 caught the move down to 76,000, so this high-level short entry was very precise and well-timed.
So, how will the market move next?
First, we can see that the rebound near 76,000 is not strong; the highest it reached was only about 77,300.
The rebound was only 1,300 points.
Since the rebound isn't strong, I believe the price will continue to fall.
Yesterday, I also said that it’s best to break below 76,000.
It didn't break yesterday, so today it should break.
If it breaks below 76,000 today, we should focus on the support around 74,000–75,000.
If this support holds, there should be another upward rebound.
How much it rebounds depends on the strength of the rebound.
I think this position has broken below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, so the rebound should be stronger than at 76,000.
The specifics depend on the actual situation.
If there is a rebound, we need to pay close attention to the liquidity during this downward move.
If liquidity is high, then hunting for stop-losses on the way up is also necessary, especially in the 76,000–79,000 range, which still has a chance to be taken out.
If it can finally go back up to 78,000–79,000, I think we can confidently short, because this might be the last opportunity to short at a high level.
After that, it could be a one-sided decline.
But we don't know how strong the rebound at the lower band will be this time, so we have to wait and see.
Regardless, this market can only be traded with high shorts and low longs; try not to do the opposite, because I fear a sudden black swan event that could trap us completely.