A Love Letter to Bitcoin

Dear Bitcoin:

As I pick up my pen, the night outside is thick. On the screen, your price hovers around $76,300. I once again sit in front of my computer, staring at that familiar yet unfamiliar candlestick chart, feeling a mix of emotions.

Eight years. From the initial white paper filled with dreams of “changing the world,” to today’s financial asset repeatedly manipulated by Wall Street. Over these years, I’ve seen you soar to the clouds and plunge into the depths. Some call you “digital gold,” others say you’re a “bubble scam.” And I, just someone who has placed my faith in you.

This letter is written to you, and also to myself.

When the story of “easy money” reaches its final chapter

These days, you’ve had a tough time, I know.

The rebound in May once gave me hope. On May 6, you briefly hit $82,800, the highest since February. ETF inflows continued for six weeks straight, even Strategy was buying. I thought, this time, truly, it’s different.

But reality quickly slapped me in the face.

On May 12, the US April CPI data was released—3.8%, hitting a new high since May 2023. Then came PPI, at 6%, the highest since December 2022. These two figures, like two buckets of ice water poured over me. Do you know what that means? No rate cuts, completely out of the question. The market is even starting to price in the possibility of rate hikes this year.

What’s more, the Federal Reserve has changed personnel

On May 15, Powell’s term ended. He was succeeded by Kevin Woor, known for his “hawkish” stance. The day he was confirmed, US Treasury yields soared across the board, with the 2-year yield breaking 4%, and the 30-year reaching 5.16%. The bond market told everyone plainly: don’t expect rate cuts anymore.

Some say Woor actually holds a significant amount of crypto assets privately, and has called you “the new gold for people under forty.” But so what? Market reactions say it all—since his confirmation, in just a few days, you’ve fallen from $80k to $76k. People are more willing to believe that a chairman advocating balance sheet reduction and emphasizing monetary discipline won’t be soft on zero-yield assets.

Ultimately, you survive on the story that “money is worthless.” When interest rates can’t really fall, and might even go up, this story can’t go on. It’s not your fault, but it’s your destiny.

Can you really hold the line at $76,000?

Writing here, I pause. Because I know, you’re facing a very tough barrier.

The $76,000 to $78,000 range, analysts call it the “critical support zone.” Over the past two years, this level has pulled you back from the edge of the cliff several times. But now, things are different.

On ETF side, on May 13 alone, there was a net outflow of $630 million, the largest since late January. Strategy—your most steadfast “fan”—paused buying in April, and after resuming in May, only bought 535 coins, nowhere near the tens of thousands before. Both key “buyers” have gone silent—who can still support you?

What worries me even more are on-chain data. CryptoQuant shows more long-term holders—those “old chives” holding coins for 6 to 12 months—are transferring their coins to exchanges. Their average cost basis is around $110k. What does that mean? They’re cutting losses and selling. When even the most steadfast are giving up, the market is truly cooling.

Some analysts say if you break below $75,000, the next support is at $70k. Others say if you can’t hold, you might slide all the way down to $50k or even $60k.

I know, these numbers are just quotes to you. But for everyone still believing in you, they are measures of faith.

Why haven’t I given up yet?

After so much discouragement, you might think I’m about to quit.
No. In these eight years, I’ve seen you rise from $1,000 to $60k, and fall from $60,000 to $16,000. Every time you felt “this is really the end,” you got up again and set new highs.

So, what’s different this time?

I admit, the macro environment has indeed changed. Woor won’t chair his first FOMC meeting until June 17. Before that, any hint of interest rate movement will shake the market. In the short term, pressure won’t disappear.

Some see a different side of you

For example, analyst Marcel Pechman recently said that if the US-Iran situation improves, oil prices fall, and inflation eases, you could return above $80,000. Also, Strategy injected another $2 billion last week to continue buying. Even Arthur Hayes says that as long as the printing presses keep running, returning to the all-time high of $126k is just a matter of time.

You see, disagreements have always existed. Both bulls and bears have their reasons. That’s you, Bitcoin. You never let people rest easy, but you also never let them give up completely.
I’m not sure if you can withstand this time, but I know, over these eight years, the most important lesson you’ve taught me is—

In a world full of lies, bubbles, and noise, the only things worth trusting are scarcity, rules, and those unchangeable things.
When fiat can be printed endlessly, when debt hits $39 trillion, and interest payments surpass military spending—who is the more honest currency? The answer is not hard to find.

Maybe you’ll fall to $70,000, maybe to $60,000. But so what? As long as you’re still here, as long as the blocks keep coming, this story isn’t over.

I will continue to hold you. Not because I believe you will rise tomorrow, but because I still believe that, in this increasingly uncertain world, certainty itself is the most scarce value.

Good night, Bitcoin. Tomorrow is a new day.

A steadfast believer

May 20, 2026