⚠️ The first "welcome gift" after Woosh takes the stage is here

The US-Iran war remains unresolved,
The market has already begun to reprice risks,
Even the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate hike this year has been raised to 80%. Many are still hoping for rate cuts,
But the current market environment has changed.

The three paths that trigger a rate hike are actually quite clear

1. Long-term inflation expectations start to unanchor
In other words, the market no longer believes inflation can smoothly return to 2%.

2. Core inflation remains high
Even after the short-term shock from tariffs has passed,
Core data still can't be brought down.

3. Demand outpaces supply
Especially the capital frenzy brought by the AI investment cycle,
Plus the wealth effect from the US stock market,
Consumption and investment have already been released early,
But productivity improvements haven't truly caught up.

The speed of money flowing out is faster than the growth of goods and productivity. This is the most dangerous part. Based on the current fundamentals and market signals, the possibility of rate cuts throughout 2026 can basically be ruled out. Many people are still stuck in the old mindset of a "loose bull market," but this round of the market,
is very likely to enter a "high interest rate + high volatility phase."

The exclusion of rate cuts in 2026 doesn't mean there are no opportunities in the market, it just means not to rely on rate cuts to pump liquidity and inflate a big bull market anymore; instead, focus on structural opportunities.
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