⚠️ Wosh's first greeting upon taking the stage:

The US-Iran war remains unresolved, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of raising interest rates this year has risen to 80%!
The three paths triggering rate hikes are also very clear:
1. Long-term inflation expectations become unanchored;
2. Core inflation remains persistently high after the fading of tariff shocks;
3. Demand outpaces supply, especially as AI investment cycles and wealth effects are released before productivity improvements.
Based on the overall fundamentals and market signals, the possibility of interest rate cuts throughout 2026 has been essentially ruled out.