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Does the market panic over expectations of interest rate hikes?
Currently (June-July), the probability of a rate hike is extremely low, and the Federal Reserve is likely to stay on hold. However, the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year is increasing, and the market now believes the chances of a rate hike in December or January next year are close to fifty-fifty or slightly higher. This change in expectations is also reflected in U.S. Treasury yields — the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds have risen to a 12-month high.
Although market expectations for rate hikes are rising, the Federal Reserve's dot plot still indicates that two rate cuts are expected this year. However, this outlook may be adjusted as economic data changes. The bear market is still ongoing, so do not be overly optimistic. $BTC #30年期美债收益率突破5%