#TradFi交易分享挑战 WHEAT (Wheat Futures) — Main agricultural product trend: Extreme weather triggers supply tightening

Wheat has recently performed strongly, achieving double-digit gains over the past month. In the US market, the July 2026 CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat futures closed at 667.25 cents per bushel, up 2.75 cents for the day; KCBT Hard Red Winter Wheat futures closed at 703.75 cents per bushel, essentially unchanged; MIAX Spring Wheat futures closed at 697.5 cents per bushel, down 6.75 cents, showing some divergence among the varieties. On the technical side, the Bollinger Bands are gradually widening, with prices near the upper band; the RSI (6-day) is at 66.10, approaching overbought territory but the trend remains strong; trading volume has also increased, indicating potential for further upward movement.

Fundamental factors show that the US winter wheat crop quality has fallen to 27%, the lowest since 1996 for the same period. Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing state, has only 15% of its crop rated as good or excellent. About 71% of winter wheat planting areas across the US are experiencing moderate to severe drought, compared to only 23% at the same time last year. The USDA expects US wheat production to hit its lowest level in over fifty years. Regarding the Chinese market, the US and China have reached a multi-year agricultural procurement agreement, with an annual purchase scale of about $17 billion, boosting market expectations for US grain exports. In Russia, the wheat export quota from February to June 2026 is set at 20 million tons, with export duties temporarily maintained at zero.

Overall, the core contradiction in the wheat market lies in the severe damage to US production and the ongoing tightening of global inventories, while the US-China procurement agreement provides additional demand support. The technical outlook remains bullish, and the short-term strong pattern is expected to continue.
WHEAT upward trend US drought-driven reduced output + US-China procurement agreement → supply tightening resistance 6.73-6.75, support 6.37$WHEAT