Under the power struggle between the US and Iran, Bitcoin is being “led by the nose” by geopolitics

This 50:47 Senate vote, in essence, reflects a concentrated manifestation of division in US domestic politics—and this division is profoundly affecting Bitcoin’s pricing logic:

1. **The total collapse of the “safe-haven narrative”**
Previously, the market had been hyping Bitcoin’s “digital gold” safe-haven attributes, but the reality is: when Trump announced a postponement of bombings, Bitcoin surged violently; when he issued tough remarks, Bitcoin plunged in response. This shows that Bitcoin has long since turned into a risk asset like US stocks and crude oil—escalation of geopolitical conflicts will only bring sell-offs, not buying.

2. **Checks and balances from Congress “buy time” for the market**
As the bill moves forward, it means Trump can no longer simply bypass Congress to launch a war at will; the threshold for conflict escalation is raised, and the market gains a precious “buffer period.” But this does not mean the risk has been eliminated—Trump still has time to lobby lawmakers, and the bill could also be rejected. Bitcoin’s rebound is, in essence, a “correction of expectation gaps,” not a reversal of the trend.

3. **Bitcoin’s next key variable: the negotiating table or the battlefield?**
While threatening “another heavy blow,” Trump is also seeking to reach an agreement with Iran. This contradictory stance leaves Bitcoin stuck in a choppy pattern of “up, but anxious; down, but anxious.” The real turning point is not the congressional vote, but whether both sides can reach a substantive agreement—if they do, Bitcoin kicks off a rebound; if talks fail and tensions escalate, Bitcoin will face another round of sell-offs.
$BTC