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When will gold hit the bottom? -- Today's market analysis

‌1. Market Trends‌

‌Latest Developments‌:

International gold currently quotes at ‌$4,495 per ounce‌ (about 4,495 yuan/gram), up ‌$12‌ from yesterday's close of ‌$4,483‌, a gain of ‌0.27%‌.

‌Key Features‌:

‌Oversold rebound continues‌: After falling to ‌$4,473‌ (a 3-month low) yesterday, modest recovery in the Asian session this morning, reaching a high of ‌$4,498‌.

‌Light trading volume‌: Steady trading during Asian hours, market awaiting the final results of US-Iran negotiations (today is the 72-hour deadline).

‌Core Drivers‌:

‌Technical correction‌: RSI moved out of oversold territory (yesterday 32 → today 35), indicating the oversold rebound may be ending;

‌Geopolitical risks persist‌: Iran has yet to respond to written guarantees from the US, and Strait of Hormuz shipping risks remain.

‌2. Technical Indicator Signals‌

‌Trend Structure‌:

‌Moving average resistance‌: Price remains under the pressure of the 5-day/30-day/200-day moving averages (around $4,505/$4,532/$4,518), indicating a bearish pattern persists.

‌Key reversal point‌: ‌$4,518‌ (200-day moving average) acts as a critical threshold; a breakout could ease downward pressure.

‌Momentum Indicators‌:

‌MACD‌: Daily death cross continues but green bars are shrinking, indicating slightly weakening downside momentum;

‌RSI (14 days)‌: Recovered to ‌35‌, moving out of extreme oversold zone, short-term correction demand increases.

‌Pattern Evolution‌:

‌$4,470-$4,520‌ trading range forming; if the level of ‌$4,470‌ holds, the head-and-shoulders top pattern threat is temporarily alleviated.

‌3. Key Support and Resistance Levels‌

‌Support Levels‌:

‌$4,470‌ (Asian session low & psychological level): losing this could lead to a test of ‌$4,450‌;

‌$4,420‌ (Fibonacci extension level): medium-term bearish target.

‌Resistance Levels‌:

‌$4,518‌ (200-day moving average & breakout resistance): a breakout could trigger short covering;

‌$4,540‌ (bottom of the May 18 consolidation platform): a key barrier to reverse.

‌4. Market Outlook‌

‌Intraday (24 hours)‌:

‌Main Variables‌: US-Iran negotiation outcome (by midday Eastern Time today):

If agreement is reached: gold may rebound and break through $4,510‌;

If negotiations break down: price may retreat to $4,450‌.

‌Technical correction window‌: RSI recovery + US Treasury yields stabilize at 4.58%, offering a weak rebound opportunity.

‌Medium-term (1 week)‌:

‌Bull-bear tug-of-war‌:

‌Inverse correlation with the US dollar‌: US Treasury yields breaking above 4.7% will suppress gold prices;

‌Central bank gold purchases‌: Global central banks have been net buyers for 18 consecutive months (monthly average of 60 tons).

‌Directional Path‌:

Hold above ‌$4,518‌: initiate a rebound toward ‌$4,560-$4,580‌;

Fall below ‌$4,470‌: accelerate downward toward ‌$4,420‌.

‌Strategic Logic‌:

‌Stagflation hedge‌: Persistent inflation in Europe and America (core CPI 3.2-3.8%) supports physical gold demand;

‌Geopolitical premium‌: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe provide risk premiums of ‌$50-$80 per ounce‌.

‌Trading Strategies‌:

‌Breakout trades‌: Buy above $4,518, target $4,540, with a stop-loss at $4,490;

‌Defensive positioning‌: Light long positions near $4,470, with a stop-loss at $4,440. $EURCNH $NZDJPY $MRNA