#TradFi交易分享挑战

It's advisable to avoid the spotlight before Nvidia's earnings report

Early Thursday morning, Nvidia will release its latest earnings report, which will directly determine the short-term trend of global AI stocks.

Historically, Nvidia's stock has fallen the day after 4 out of its last 5 earnings reports.

Since 2022, there has been almost no instance of a significant single-day rise following an earnings release.

Market funds regard Nvidia as a "strict parent" — no matter how good the results are, they always hope for further improvement.

Last night, Nvidia opened high and then declined, indicating some funds are already hedging against uncertainty in advance.

In relation to A-shares, highly correlated sectors like optical modules, PCB, and Nvidia-linked stocks should also be cautious to avoid risks.

Based on the above analysis, tomorrow's trading strategy can be summarized in eight words: follow the trend, and be selective.

Nvidia-linked stocks (optical modules, PCB, etc.): Before Thursday's earnings release, historical patterns suggest risk aversion; it's advisable to stay cautious.

Gold: Short-term pullbacks are not a buying signal; wait until US bond yields peak before considering.

High-interest-rate sensitive growth stocks: The current environment is not suitable for chasing highs; caution is necessary.

Maintain vigilance on macroeconomic factors

Currently, US bond yields are soaring, and the market is no longer just worried about a recession but about "stagflation + fiscal mess."

Tariffs are driving up inflation, which is sticky; the Fed cannot cut interest rates and may even raise them.

Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bonds have broken through 2.6%, and the 30-year yield has once surged above 3.9%, with a 75% chance of a rate hike in June.

The US and Japan are the two main "water taps" for global liquidity; tightening both means global market liquidity will gradually tighten.