#Ethereum

1. Current Market Situation: The downward momentum is still present, but it is approaching a critical life-and-death line

Based on ETH daily data from 8:00 AM on May 20, 2026:

1. Clear technical weakness
- The daily chart has been falling from a high of 2423, with the lowest dip to 2076.09, current price around 2110
- MACD is deeply declining across the board, bearish momentum dominates, order book shows 53.96% short positions, the short-term bearish pattern remains unchanged
- The daily-level downtrend has not truly stabilized or reversed
2. The current critical dividing line
- 【Hold firm = stop the fall and rebound】: As long as support in the 2090-2100 range holds without effective break, likely to oscillate at low levels, first rebounding to test resistance at 2145-2150
- 【Unable to hold = new round of sharp decline】: If the daily close effectively breaks below the recent low of 2076, the downward space will open directly below, with the next target zone at 2040~2000


2. Will it continue to fall sharply? Two scenarios for judgment

✅ Short-term most likely scenario (70% probability)
First, sideways consolidation at low levels, grinding out bearish momentum, then choosing a direction
It won't immediately plunge in a single wave, but will oscillate between 2100-2145, shaking out bottom-fishing retail investors and clearing leveraged funds chasing high positions.

⚠️ Accelerated decline scenario (30% probability triggered)
If the following signals appear, it is highly likely to continue deep downward:

1. Bitcoin weakens together, breaking below 76,100 USD again
2. Continuous large net outflows from Ethereum ETF funds
3. Geopolitical risks heat up again, global risk aversion erupts
Once any of these conditions are met, it becomes easy to break below the 2076 support, triggering a new sharp decline.


3. Ten-year long-term trader · Tidal trading response (core is not prediction, but contingency plan)

We don’t bet on “definitely rising/definitely falling,” but aim to profit from both directions, never going naked

1. If support at 2100 holds: normal operation of the range grid, steady harvesting of Gamma profits through oscillations, small positions for reconnaissance to buy low and attempt rebounds
2. Break below 2090 with increased volume: pause long bias, shift the overall grid range downward, only maintain high short positions + low-position batch replenishment
3. Ultimate bottom line: as long as the 2076 low is not broken, long-term bottom positions remain unchanged; once broken, tighten risk controls and reduce leverage
4. Always consistent: five-level risk control to lock in principal, never hold heavy positions or endure losses without stop-loss


4. Your straightforward conclusion

There is still a risk of further short-term decline, but the probability of a continuous sharp drop is low; current trend favors low-level oscillation and bottoming out
The market can never be precisely predicted; top-tier trading relies not on predicting rises or falls, but on comprehensive rules + extreme risk management, to survive and profit in any market condition.
$ETH