Half a portfolio worth 13 billion dollars is going to a single bet.

Against AI chips.

Leopold Aschenbrener,
The man who wrote the most famous statement about Artificial General Intelligence two years ago, is now placing 58% of his fund's wealth on a bet that the chips he’s building will collapse.

And the numbers speak louder than any analysis.

Anatomy of the Bearish Bet
The SMH fund leads the list with a sell order worth $2.04 billion, or 14.94% of the portfolio.
This is the largest single position in the fund ever.

Then comes NVDA with a sell order worth $1.57 billion,
Representing 11.47% of the portfolio.

ORCL with a sell order of $1.07 billion.

AVGO with $1.01 billion.

AMD with $969 million.

MU with $583 million.

TSM with $535 million.

INTC with $159 million.

The total bearish bet on AI chips approaches $8 billion.

All these are entirely new positions entered only in the last quarter.
They didn’t exist three months ago.

The other side of the equation
Holding onto a single stock category. And adding to it.

Bitcoin mining companies that have transformed their infrastructure into AI data centers.

CRWV with $556 million.

IREN with $401 million.

APLD with $320 million.

RIOT with $142 million.

CLSK with $104 million.

And a new position in HIVE Digital.

It’s as if he’s telling the market frankly:
Smart money isn’t chasing chipmakers, but those who secure the land and energy powering them.

The Smart Paradox
A deeper look into the file reveals a carefully crafted game targeting two specific companies.
MU.
And TSM.

Entering both buy and sell orders simultaneously.

MU:
A sell order of $583 million,
And a buy order of $422 million.

TSM:
A sell order of $535 million,
And a buy order of $354 million.

In each, the bearish bet remains larger than the bullish one.

This is an accurate reading of extreme uncertainty.
The fund suggests the most likely scenario is a downturn,
But it’s smartly hedged in case the market suddenly reverses.

That’s what a portfolio manager does when they are highly confident,
And the risks are higher.
--
The Full Thesis
Buy those who pour concrete.
And those who extend the electrical grids.
And those who reserve megawatts of energy near city centers.
And bet against those who manufacture silicon inside them.

Why?
Because chips are a tradable commodity over time.

Because China is building its own chips and competing at lower prices.

Because Google is launching TPU into the market with Blackstone.

Because supply will double in two years, while marginal demand won’t double at the same speed.

As for land, energy, and networks,
These are assets that cannot be duplicated.

Megawatts of energy near cities are a limited resource.

Getting building permits takes years.
And those who own this infrastructure today hold the key to the next decade.

A Lesson from the Internet Bubble
What Aschenbrener is doing today is exactly what happened during the internet boom in 2000.

Chip companies rose first and fastest.
Cisco was at the top of the world.
And Sun Microsystems was a Wall Street star.

Then all collapsed by as much as 90% from their peaks.

Those who survived and made real wealth long-term,
Were the infrastructure and content owners.

Cable, telecom, and broadcast tower companies.
And the platforms built on this infrastructure later.

The man who saw the AI wave before the whole world,
Now says the market has priced AI makers higher than they deserve.

And that the true winner in the end,
Will be those who own the land, not those who make the chips.

Is history beginning to repeat itself before our eyes?

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