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From the trend structure, this wave of pullback
$BTC
On the daily chart, the bottom broke through the bottom range, rising for two waves, now in a pullback after the second wave of rally. There are two reasons for the long-term bullish outlook: 1. After this pullback, a third wave will form. 2. The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 for the wave from 12,600 down to 6,000 is near 85,560, likely to hit this level.
On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of rally reached from 79,924 to 60,000, hitting the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of this decline. The second wave of rally approached the Fibonacci 0.618 (around 83,580), but did not reach it. The high was around 82,850, then a pullback began. Currently, it has broken below 65,000 to 82,850, the upward trendline of this rally. The pullback has reached the Fibonacci 0.618 level of this rally, but no bullish structure has appeared yet. A healthier trend would be a three-wave correction pattern before resuming upward movement. The bullish zone is between Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.382 (71,890–76,083).
From a simple trading logic perspective, this pullback replicates the previous wave’s pattern, also a three-wave correction structure.
From the 15-minute chart, this decline shows a pattern of decline–correction–continuation of the bear trend. The ideal entry point is around 74,900, which falls within the bullish zone on the 4-hour chart (71,890–76,083).
If a bullish structure appears at the bottom, consider going long. When the bullish breakout occurs, traders must exit. Currently, the decline is very smooth, and waiting for a pullback to short is difficult, as the market maker isn’t giving opportunities. The same applies to short positions: if a bearish breakout occurs, traders must exit.