Been diving into what shaped copper markets back in 2023, and honestly there's a lot worth revisiting. That year was basically a battle between two massive forces - supply tightening on one side, and demand uncertainty on the other.

Let me start with what everyone was watching: China. The whole copper price forecast 2023 scenario hinged massively on what happened there. Beijing was dealing with serious real estate issues - property investment dropped 10% that year compared to 2021, the first decline since data started in 1999. Construction accounts for about 23% of China's copper consumption, so when the real estate sector stumbles, it hits copper demand hard. That said, the government was pushing stimulus measures, easing COVID restrictions, and rolling out 16 property support initiatives. So there was this weird tension - short-term headwinds but potential recovery signals.

On the supply side, things were genuinely messy. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest producer, fell short by 172,000 tons in 2022. Peru's mining regions were locked in protests - the Las Bambas complex was operating at just 20% capacity because of blockades. Water shortages, labor issues, poor ore grades... the whole supply chain was under stress. Most analysts expected these Latin American challenges to persist through 2023.

Here's what made the copper price forecast 2023 interesting though: despite all this pressure, experts were oddly optimistic about the longer term. The energy transition narrative was huge - copper demand for EVs, renewable energy, grid infrastructure. S&P Global was projecting copper consumption could double to 50 million metric tons by 2035. That structural demand story kept the red metal in focus for investors.

Looking back at the predictions, they ranged pretty wildly. Goldman Sachs was calling for $11,000/ton, Bank of America suggested it could hit $12,000/ton under the right conditions, while more conservative forecasts from Fitch Solutions landed around $8,500/ton. Even Wallet Investor's longer-term copper price forecast 2023 was betting on price appreciation. The divergence basically reflected how uncertain the macro picture was.

The technical setup showed positive momentum on monthly charts, with traders watching support around 3.8465 and resistance at 4.5615. But the real story wasn't the short-term trading levels - it was the structural supply squeeze combined with growing green energy demand.

What actually mattered for price direction came down to a few things: would China's stimulus work, how long would Peru's protests last, and how quickly would new mine capacity come online. The consensus was that tight supply would be the market's focus by Q4, which could provide price support even if global growth slowed.

Looking at it now, that copper price forecast 2023 analysis nailed the core tension - short-term recession fears versus long-term supply constraints and energy transition demand. The metal's role as a green commodity hedge became increasingly central to how investors thought about it.