The liquidity contraction observed in Turkey emerged as a natural consequence of tight monetary policies implemented to combat high inflation. The increase in interest rates significantly raised the cost of access to credit, putting pressure on both the real sector and individuals' cash flows. The difficulty in accessing capital forced companies to postpone growth plans, cut investments, and scale down operational size. If a new wave of geopolitical conflict adds to this fragile situation on a global scale, a new cost inflation process fueled especially by energy prices could be triggered. The sharp rise in oil prices would once again force central banks to face increased pressure to raise interest rates. In such a scenario, the liquidity squeeze experienced in Turkey today could evolve into a broader financial behavior pattern worldwide.

During such periods, the primary reflex of economic actors tends to be more about preservation than growth. Risk appetite diminishes, investments are postponed, and cash reserves become a strategic safety shield. In short, the global system shifts from a “growth of capital” phase to a “preservation of liquidity” phase. In other words, those who stay in cash survive...