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Is the economy really improving? What would it look like? These days, everyone is worried about rising living costs—gas, food, electricity—constantly increasing. Large companies are cutting staff and reducing revenue. Global stock indices are pulling back. So, this is an important question: should we start investing now?
In fact, if the economy is good, what would it look like? There are signals we can observe through six key indicators. If we monitor them consistently, we’ll know when to invest and when to gradually accumulate cash. Let’s see what these six important economic indicators are.
The first indicator is GDP or Gross Domestic Product. It’s calculated from the spending of the general public, plus private investment, government expenditure, and exports minus imports. If GDP is positive and steadily increasing, it means the economy is growing, people are employed, and money is circulating well—good signs that if the economy is good, it will look like this growth. But if GDP is negative and decreasing, we should be cautious, reduce investments, and hold more cash.
The second indicator is the unemployment rate. It shows how many people are unemployed. The lower this number, the better, because it indicates most people have jobs and income, and aren’t heavily in debt. If this number rises, more people are unemployed and have no income, which can be problematic for the economy. When the economy is good, this number should decrease continuously.
The third indicator is the inflation rate. It shows how much prices for goods and services have increased compared to before. An appropriate inflation rate is around 1-4% per year—not too high—because moderate inflation encourages economic expansion, with companies investing more and hiring more. But if inflation is too high, like now, the cost of living is expensive, and the returns from traditional savings decrease. Therefore, we need to find investment assets that can beat inflation over the long term.
The fourth indicator is consumer confidence. It’s obtained from surveys asking people how they view the economy—do they have money to spend? Do they want to buy things? If this number is above 50 and keeps rising, it means people are confident, have money, and are buying more. This reflects that when the economy is good, people are confident and spending more.
The fifth indicator is business confidence. Similar to consumer confidence but asked to companies—about their performance, order books, investments, and employment. If this number is above 50 and increasing, it indicates entrepreneurs are confident and investing in expanding their businesses. This is a sign that when the economy is good, businesses are growing.
The last indicator is private sector investment index. It looks at construction activity, building materials, machinery imports, machinery sales, and truck sales. If this number is rising steadily, it means producers are selling well, ordering more, buying machinery, and expanding factories—indicating increased economic activity. If it declines, it may suggest a slowdown in investment.
However, these six indicators are just part of the analysis. When the economy is good, what it looks like depends on many factors. Those interested in starting to invest should also consider which sectors or industries are performing well, and which companies within those industries have sustainable earnings, revenue, and profit growth. Think about these aspects carefully before making investment decisions.