Recently, I noticed an interesting market phenomenon: central banks around the world are frantically stockpiling gold. The Polish central bank just announced it will increase its gold reserves by 105 tons, and this is not an isolated case. Our central bank is even more aggressive, continuously buying gold for 18 months, with gold reserves reaching 74.64 million ounces in April, equivalent to about 2,321.58 tons. What does this reflect? In an era where geopolitical tensions are becoming more complex and trade protectionism is on the rise, countries are using gold to diversify risks and stabilize foreign exchange reserves.

In simple terms, the value of gold as a strategic reserve asset is being re-recognized. Currently, gold prices fluctuate around $4,700 per ounce. Although there is a short-term correction, the cumulative increase over the past year has already reached 40%, and this trend is continuing.

How do institutions view this? Morgan Stanley has made an interesting prediction, believing that by the end of 2026, gold prices will surge to $5,200 per ounce. In other words, there is still about a 10% upside from the current level. Their logic is that, although the Middle East situation has pushed up energy prices and brought inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve will at least cut interest rates once this year, which supports gold prices.

TD Securities’ perspective is also worth noting. Once the Iran conflict and inflationary pressures from oil prices ease, the Fed’s policy focus will shift toward full employment. At that point, lower U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and a revival of gold buying demand from global investors and central banks could really restart the gold bull market, with targets heading toward $5,200 or even higher.

From the actions of central banks stockpiling gold, this wave of gold market may just be beginning. For investors focused on commodities and safe-haven assets, gold, a traditional store of value, now takes on a new strategic significance.