Do you think the gold price touching $4,800 means the market is calm? Think again, because right now gold is waiting for a big storm to hit within the next 48 hours. The breaking news is the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran at Pakistan. Iran has come out strongly through the media, calling the U.S. a war criminal and refusing to negotiate at all. However, insider sources whisper that Iranian representatives are packing their bags, ready to head to Pakistan, even though official statements deny it, but the gut feeling is a clear yes.

If this deal gets finalized, gold could be sold off sharply. But if negotiations collapse before the Wednesday ceasefire deadline, gold is guaranteed to surge. Even JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have set a wide price range from $4,000 to $6,300, meaning no one dares to make a definitive call right now.

Honestly, the chances of this round of negotiations ending well are almost zero because both sides’ proposals are so far apart that they seem impossible to reconcile. Iran is playing big, demanding uranium rights, telling the U.S. to withdraw, wanting control of the Hormuz Strait, and even seeking compensation for war damages. Meanwhile, the U.S. retorts bluntly that nuclear disarmament must happen immediately, opening the strait, and allowing inspections.

The big news the market is overlooking right now is Kevin Warsh’s testimony to the Senate as the new Fed Chair candidate. This guy is a hardcore hawk who hates inflation with a passion. If today he issues a stern statement saying that monetary tightening must continue, expect the dollar to soar and gold to be buried. New traders are distracted by warship news, but seasoned traders are listening closely to Warsh’s tone.

Switching to our local stock market, it seems investors have become accustomed to the explosions in the Middle East. Pi Securities’ analysts are looking through the smoke and pointing at the Anti-Oil stocks, because these stocks are still lagging behind others. If the U.S. and Iran manage to talk things out and the Hormuz Strait actually opens, these stocks will benefit from the unexpected opportunity.

In our country, there’s some good news: diesel prices have dropped by 1.2 baht, providing some relief. But what to watch closely is the widespread rumor that the government is preparing to borrow a huge amount—500 billion baht—to support the economy. If this is true, everyone will be anxiously waiting to see whether this massive fund will give a boost to the Thai stock market or just turn out to be a false alarm.