I see that the euro is still quite volatile today, so I want to share my views on the EUR/USD pair towards the end of this year and beyond.

The history of the euro is quite interesting. Since 1999, when the European Union decided to create a new main currency, the euro initially was quite weak, reaching a low of 0.8200. But then it gradually appreciated until 2008, when it broke its all-time high at 1.6039, a peak that has not been surpassed to this day.

Let's look at what the main drivers of EUR/USD are. Currently, the interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed remains the most important factor. When the Fed maintains high interest rates, it attracts capital to buy dollars. Meanwhile, the ECB's tightening policies support the euro. Additionally, inflation, GDP, and employment data also influence this currency pair's movements. Moreover, geopolitical situations, such as tensions in Europe or trade uncertainties, impact investor confidence in the euro.

Right now, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1750, and the euro's outlook today still shows a positive signal in the medium term. Over the past six months, the price has increased by about 8.87%, indicating that the market is optimistic about the Eurozone. In the short term, this pair may fluctuate between 1.16 and 1.19, but if the Eurozone economy continues to recover and the dollar weakens due to the Fed's rate cuts, it could break through to 1.20–1.23.

For an uptrend scenario, conditions include the Eurozone maintaining growth, energy prices not soaring, and the ECB not adopting overly tight policies. A downtrend would occur if the US economy remains strong, the Fed keeps interest rates high for a prolonged period, or geopolitical tensions in Europe increase.

From a technical indicator perspective, RSI, MACD, and ADX all show bullish signals, supporting the continuation of an uptrend. Technical support is at 1.17, with targets at 1.20–1.23.

However, risks exist. If the US economy outperforms expectations or inflation remains high, the Fed might keep interest rates elevated, strengthening the dollar and pushing EUR/USD back to the 1.12–1.14 range. Similarly, if the Eurozone faces economic problems or a crisis occurs, investor confidence in the euro could decline.

Overall, EUR/USD for the remainder of 2026 presents interesting trading opportunities. The euro remains bullish today, but caution is needed regarding risks from various situations that could change the outlook. This is suitable for those looking to trade medium-term with proper risk management.