I noticed something interesting in the movement of gold over the past few months. The year started with incredible momentum – reaching close to $5,600 in January, and I thought we would see even higher levels. But the reality is that the market corrected sharply, especially in March when there was a severe decline of about 11.8% for the month.

Now in May, gold is trading around $4,700-$4,800, which is still a historically high level when you think about it. The problem is that the market has become very sensitive – any news about U.S. interest rates or inflation moves the price significantly. The recent inflation reached 3.3% in March, which brought price pressures back to the forefront.

Regarding gold price forecasts for the second half of the year, major banks have raised their expectations considerably. JP Morgan predicts $6,300, UBS raises its target to $6,200, and even Deutsche Bank expects $6,000. But there are downside scenarios as well – Morgan Stanley sees $4,600 as the baseline scenario.

The truth is that gold price forecasts depend on many factors: geopolitical risks, central bank policies, the strength of the dollar. Central banks are still buying strongly, and demand for safe havens remains high. But if U.S. interest rates start rising again, we might see downward pressure on prices.

Personally, I am watching the $5,000 level as an important psychological barrier. If gold breaks through it strongly, we could see a new upward movement. If it breaks below, the next support is around $4,500. The current period requires continuous monitoring of economic data and monetary policy decisions.