I have recently been examining the EUR/PLN exchange rate more intensively and I have to say, the matter is more interesting than initially thought. My Polish neighbor tried to convince me that I should be pessimistic about the złoty — because of the government, because of the Ukraine situation. But as someone who works professionally with economics, I wanted to take a closer look.

First, regarding the current situation: Poland has been a member of the EU since 2004 but has never adopted the euro. This means we can still trade nicely with the złoty (PLN) against the euro. Currently, you get about 4.27 złoty for one euro — historically, this is actually a relatively stable value. But what’s interesting is: after the Ukraine war, the euro rose significantly, but has been falling again for about three years. That piqued my curiosity.

When looking at the factors that influence the EUR/PLN exchange rate forecast, it gets complex. First, there are inflation rates: Poland was at about 3.7% in 2024, while the Eurozone was at 2.4%. For the coming years, a decline is expected, but Poland remains higher. This argues somewhat against the złoty. On the other hand, interest rates — Poland is at 4.75%, the ECB at only 2%. Higher interest rates usually make a currency more attractive.

GDP growth is also not to be ignored. Poland is expected to grow about 3.5% in 2025 and 2026, while the Eurozone only at 1.2% and 1%. The unemployment rate in Poland is at 3.1%, in the Eurozone at 6.2%. These are quite strong indicators for the złoty. But then there are also government debts — they have recently risen significantly in Poland, over 416 billion euros by mid-2025.

Geopolitically, the situation is complex. The war in Ukraine burdens both regions, but Poland bears it more — direct border, millions of Ukrainian refugees, increased military spending. These are real costs.

When I look at the EUR/PLN exchange rate forecast for 2026, there are different scenarios. Some analysts expect a decline toward 4.20, others see values up to 4.44. Erste Group forecasts around 4.30. Honestly, the arguments are mixed: a strengthening of the złoty is supported by higher interest rates and stronger growth. Against it are higher inflation and debt development.

As a trader, I have to say: this is a currency pair that can move in any direction. The EUR/PLN forecast for the next months points more to sideways movement, but with interesting fluctuations in between. That makes it risky, but also quite attractive for active traders. Especially with a carry trade strategy, one could leverage the higher Polish interest rates.

My conclusion: my neighbor isn’t entirely wrong that there are risks, but being pessimistic? The złoty has shown in recent months that it does have strength. The EUR/PLN forecast remains open, but the fundamental data for Poland are not as bad as feared. Those trading here should be cautious and keep an eye on the daily ranges — they are relatively tight, allowing for relaxed trading. But spectacular gains shouldn’t be expected here. Still, the pair remains interesting, especially if you have a connection to Poland.