Gold is having trouble maintaining the three-week rally we saw at the Asian market open. Since Tuesday, the price has fallen quite a bit, and it's trading around $4,773 to $4,774 now. The situation in Iran is really complicated — Trump rejected their peace proposal, and according to CNN, he's considering resuming military operations soon. This is strengthening the dollar as a safe haven currency, which naturally puts downward pressure on gold.

There’s more fueling this decline. Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, reigniting inflation concerns. As a result, the market is pricing in about a 25% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year. Basically, expectations of a more aggressive central bank are boosting the dollar and limiting gains in the metal.

Now everyone is watching the US CPI — these data will be crucial in determining where we go from here. Technically speaking, the XAU/USD is resilient. It broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (around 4,742), and the RSI at about 58 shows there’s still upward pressure, but nothing too strong. If it drops further, the first support is at 4,696, then at 4,671 and 4,651. But without selling volume accompanying this decline, I’m cautious about betting against gold right now.