Look at this interesting movement in the exchange rate this year. The dollar falling below R$ 5 in 2026 caught many people by surprise, especially those who followed the pessimism that dominated at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. The US currency truly lost strength against the real, and it wasn't for just one reason.

In April, when the spot dollar closed at R$ 4.9980, it was the first time in about two years that we saw this. In the year-to-date, the US dollar had already fallen more than 8.95% by then. It wasn't a short-term fluctuation; it was a genuine weakening.

The reasons behind this dollar decline today are a mix of factors. First, Brazilian interest rates remain extremely high compared to the rest of the world. Even with the Copom cutting from 15% to 14.50%, Brazil still offers very attractive real returns. This keeps the country on the radar of investors seeking yields in local currency.

Second important point: the trade balance exploded. In April, Brazil recorded a surplus of US$ 10.5 billion, a 37.5% increase over the same month last year. Soy, oil, iron ore, beef—strong commodities bringing dollars into the economy. More foreign currency supply means a more favorable exchange rate.

There’s also the return of foreign flows with strength. In May, Brazil regained leadership as the main destination for Chinese investment in 2025, attracting US$ 6.1 billion. And the Brazilian stock market? It started attracting foreign investors again at the beginning of the year. All of this helps improve perceptions about Brazil.

But it’s not just internal factors. Part of the dollar’s decline also comes from external influences. On April 13, when it closed at R$ 4.9980, it was a day when global risk appetite improved—news about a possible deal involving Iran. That session, the dollar weakened not only against the real but against other currencies as well.

Now, the question everyone asks: will the dollar keep falling? Honest answer: no one knows for sure. Exchange rates are one of the most sensitive variables in the market. They react simultaneously to interest rates, foreign flows, commodities, fiscal risk, geopolitics, and global sentiment. The market’s Focus survey has already revised projections several times in just a few months.

In January, the median was R$ 5.50 for the end of 2026. By April, it dropped to R$ 5.25. A week later, in May, it went back to R$ 5.20. This shows how the market consensus is flexible when it comes to exchange rates.

What could reverse this movement? Deterioration in Brazil’s fiscal outlook is a major threat. If the market loses confidence in spending cuts, the risk premium rises and the real suffers. A stronger global slowdown or a new geopolitical shock could also push the dollar higher—in stressful times, the US currency tends to act as a safe haven.

But as long as the current scenario holds, it’s possible to think about strategies. The dollar falling can be seen in two ways: as an opportunity for defensive dollarization or as an entry point into global markets.

For those who just want to build patrimonial protection, buying dollars cheaper makes sense. It’s not about trying to profit in the short term; it’s about reducing reliance solely on the real and creating a hedge against a potential future weakening of the Brazilian currency.

There’s also a more active approach. Using the cheap dollar as a base to position oneself in international markets. Access global stock exchanges, increase exposure to sectors outside Brazil, build a more diversified strategy. In this case, the exchange rate decline acts as an entry discount for those looking to operate in international environments.

The logic here is twofold. You buy dollars cheaply when the rate is R$ 4.90. Then, you use that capital to trade dollar-denominated assets—gold, indices, stocks, currency pairs. If you get the trade right and earn 10%, your dollar balance grows. And if later the dollar returns to R$ 5.20 or beyond, when converting back to reais, you get additional exchange gains on top of the trade profit.

But this needs to be handled carefully. Nothing guarantees the dollar will go back up, and nothing guarantees success in these trades. The leverage potential exists as a possibility, not as a promise. You might get the trade right and still not have a currency gain if the dollar remains weak. Or you could lose on the trade and face less favorable exchange rates when cashing out.

This approach makes more sense for those with higher risk tolerance, willing to monitor the market closely, and with a method and discipline. Platforms offering access to multiple markets, analysis tools, dynamic charts, and risk management can facilitate this operation within a single framework.

In the end, the dollar falling in 2026 seems to result from a combination of factors that, for now, favor the real. But that doesn’t mean the movement will continue automatically. Exchange rates remain a difficult variable to predict, highly sensitive to fiscal policy, interest rates, geopolitics, and commodities.

The best thing is less about trying to guess the next exchange rate number and more about understanding how this scenario fits into your personal strategy. If you want protection, a cheap dollar is an opportunity. If you want to be more active, it’s an entry point. The decision depends on your profile and objectives, not on exchange rate forecasts.