Just watched the forex news today. I saw gold (XAUUSD) stuck at $4,578 and fighting against the pressure from the Fed meeting last night. In reality, it was quite tense.

What’s causing market chaos is that the Fed kept interest rates steady as expected, but there were four votes for easing. Jerome Powell also announced he will not resign from the board. This is a clear hawkish signal, causing the dollar to strengthen, bond yields to spike, and gold to be sold off immediately.

But the real problem is oil. Trump insists on tightening sanctions on Iran, with Brent surpassing $117. Adding to that, the UAE announced it will withdraw from OPEC to unlock quotas. This is ongoing chaos. The market fears inflation won’t go down, so the Fed must keep interest rates high. Gold prices are therefore very difficult.

Tonight at 19:30, the key forex news that will determine the trend is Q1 GDP and Core PCE. If GDP figures are below 1.24% (according to the Atlanta Fed model), it will signal stagflation, causing gold to surge. But if the data comes out strong, gold will likely plunge further.

In the short term, gold is trying to bounce from the oversold zone where RSI is starting to turn up. The first resistance is at $4,602 (EMA 20). If it doesn’t break through, it will test $4,553. For short-term traders, try playing Sell on Rally at $4,600–$4,620, aiming for $4,553. For breakout traders, buy around $4,553–$4,560 and sell at $4,605. Tight stop-loss is essential.