Silver is currently going wild, isn't it? In January of this year, the price shot up to over $121 per ounce – an all-time high – and then BAM, within 30 hours, a crash of over 30%. It was brutal to watch. Now in May, the price sits just below $83, and the question everyone is asking: Will it break out again or was that the big bubble?

What I find interesting: The rise in 2025 was crazy. From somewhere between $20–$25 up to over $121 – that’s an increase of about 147% just in 2025, then another 70% in January. For the first time in 45 years, the old high from 1980 was broken. That already points to something. But the crash afterward also shows: the market is extremely sensitive. The nomination of the new Fed chair, who favors tighter monetary policy, was enough to turn everything around.

The bullish arguments are actually solid. The Silver Institute reports that the silver market has been in deficit for the fifth year in a row – demand exceeds supply. Cumulatively, nearly 820 million ounces have been missing since 2021. Mine production stagnates at about 813 million ounces annually, but demand is growing. Especially in January, there was massive physical demand from Asia – in Hong Kong and South China, silver bars were sometimes sold out within hours. That’s not normal. People see silver as a cheaper alternative to gold, which is historically expensive.

Added to that is demand from future technologies. Solar panels, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure – all need silver. The Silver Institute expects these sectors to grow strongly by 2030. This is a structural thing, not just speculation.

But there’s also the bearish side. A strong US dollar makes silver more expensive for international buyers. The new Fed chair is considered a supporter of higher interest rates and less money printing. If that happens, the dollar could strengthen again. That would be negative for commodity prices in general.

What analysts are saying is pretty wildly divided. Citigroup suggests silver could go to $150 – calling it “gold on steroids.” Marko Kolanovic, former chief strategist at JP Morgan, expects $50. Goldman Sachs simply expects extreme volatility. Long-term, some investors see silver at over $300 by 2030, others at $82. That shows how unpredictable the situation is.

For me personally, it’s clear: The silver forecast for 2026 heavily depends on how Fed policy develops and how stable the dollar remains. The fundamentals – deficit, rising demand, scarcity – point to higher prices. But volatility is real. The crash in January made that clear.

If you want to invest, there are different ways: physical silver, mining stocks, ETFs like SLV or PSLV, or CFDs/futures for more aggressive traders. Each method has its pros and cons. Physical silver is tangible but storage costs money. Mining stocks can rise disproportionately but are more volatile. ETFs are convenient but have fees. CFDs and futures are risky, especially for beginners.

Historical parallels are interesting. In 1980, the Hunt Brothers tried to dominate the silver market – price shot up to $48.70, then everything collapsed. In 2010–2011, there were allegations of market manipulation against JP Morgan, leading to the Dodd-Frank Act. Now we have again extreme volatility, but the reasons are different – structural scarcity, geopolitical tensions, weak dollar, massive demand from Asia.

My silver forecast? Realistically: it’s likely to continue upward, but not in a straight line. The market will remain volatile. If the Fed becomes less tight or the dollar weakens, there could be another run. If the dollar strengthens, it will be difficult. The next few months will show whether the January high was sustainable or just a bubble.

Conclusion: Silver has real fundamentals but also real risks. Those who want to invest should do so with a clear head and not react to FOMO. Bank of America warns of “bubble-like” dynamics. That should be taken seriously. The silver forecast remains open, but the opportunities are there – just as the risks are.