#TradFi交易分享挑战 #BTC Breaks below $77k, can it hold tonight at $76,700?

🐺 Analysis by Wolf | 2026.05.19
BTC bears strike again tonight. On-chain liquidation data shows BTC has fallen to around $76,800, with support at $76,600 (tested three times today). If this support is lost, the next targets are $76,000 and even $75,500; a recovery above $77,500 is needed to slow the downward momentum. ETH is weakening simultaneously, with multiple large-scale liquidations triggered (up to $569K USD per event), totaling over $1.2 million. The $2,110–$2,124 zone has become a liquidation cluster, with $2,080 as a key psychological level for bulls → $2,000 as a secondary support.

【Today’s Key Drivers】
1. BTC fund net outflow of $982 million/week (Bloomberg) — Investors are rotating from BTC into SOL/XRP, with structural capital inflows into altcoins

2. Swan Bitcoin faces nearly $1 billion lawsuit — Involving fund transfers before Prime Trust’s bankruptcy, putting pressure on crypto custody firms’ sentiment

3. Solana Q1 Chain GDP reaches $342 million, RWA market cap jumps 43% to $2.01 billion — RWA narrative continues to deliver

4. ETH long liquidation — Four batches of liquidations at $222K/$296K/$322K/$569K USD, market sees localized long squeezes

5. Gold approaches a 1.5-month low, Fed rate hike expectations rise — Risk assets generally under pressure

My straightforward judgment: tonight is not the time to bottom fish. Although support from forced liquidations exists, macro rate hike expectations turning hawkish + continuous outflows from BTC funds + ETH long squeezes overlap, indicating the bear trend isn’t over. Holding $76,500 is the first step; a true stabilization requires reclaiming $77,500 for reassessment. Slightly bearish, but I don’t recommend chasing shorts.
【Focus Points】
• Can $76,500 hold?

• Will BTC futures funding rates turn negative (a bearish signal)?

• Can SOL break out independently amid weakness (can fundamentals outperform the market)?
⚠️ Risk reminder: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; decision-making should be cautious.