I just noticed something interesting in the gold market this morning. The XAUUSD price is showing at 4,777 dollars, and there are signals that it might change to an uptrend. What pushed gold prices up is the international political situation that is starting to tense. This morning, the U.S. announced the start of a blockade operation at the Hormuz Strait, a key oil shipping route in the world.

This has raised concerns about energy shortages, and of course, investors are beginning to look for safer assets. Gold is always the first choice.

Another interesting point is that Europe does not fully support the U.S. All of the UK and the European Union have stated that they do not endorse this blockade. They want the strait to remain open for navigation, not to be further restricted. France is trying to turn this into an international force rather than directly supporting the U.S.

From an investor’s perspective, this lack of unity is uncertainty. When the market is unclear, funds tend to flow into gold. Therefore, gold prices are likely to rise.

From a technical standpoint, the price is breaking through the 200 EMA line around 4,780 dollars. If the price can stay above this level, it is expected that gold will continue to move upward. The next targets are 4,818 and 4,858 dollars respectively.

But be cautious because often after breaking through resistance, the price will retest to see how strong the support is. Currently, the RSI is at 57, which is not yet in the overbought zone, so there is still room to go higher.

For trend followers, watch whether the price can stay above 4,780. If a 4-hour candlestick closes clearly above this level, consider buying. The profit target is 4,818, with a stop loss below 4,780.

For safety-oriented traders, wait for the price to dip back down. If there is a retest around 4,748 or 4,731 and signs of a reversal appear, then look for a buying opportunity. This provides an advantage in risk management.

Key support levels today are at 4,748, 4,731, and 4,700 dollars. Resistance levels are at 4,780, 4,800, and 4,818 dollars.

Another possibility is that the market may move sideways before the situation becomes clearer or new news emerges. In this case, the price may stay within the range of 4,748 to 4,780 for a while.

As for whether gold can reach 5,000 dollars, it’s possible but depends on how the situation unfolds. If negotiations succeed or international forces intervene, tensions may ease, and gold prices could retreat.

However, the gold market recently has shown demand due to political uncertainty. Short-term gold price forecasts are quite positive, but it’s important to monitor the situation’s development. Understanding technical charts and managing risk well are crucial.