I've noticed that gold has experienced crazy movement in recent months. The year started strongly, reaching $5,600 per ounce in January, but then entered a very sharp correction in March, and now in May, we are moving around $4,700-$4,800. The truth is, the market has become very sensitive to any changes in monetary policy or geopolitical tensions.

Honestly, what’s interesting is that major institutions’ gold forecasts for the upcoming period are very optimistic. JPMorgan expects the price to reach $6,300 by the end of the year, and UBS raised its target to $6,200 with a bullish scenario that could reach $7,200 if tensions escalate. Even Deutsche Bank expects $6,000. The average from a Reuters survey reached $4,746, the highest annual average since 2012.

But don’t forget that there are factors driving this rise: first, central banks are still buying gold strongly. Second, inflation is rearing its head again — it reached 3.3% in March after being 2.4% in February. This means investors are seeking safe havens. Third, geopolitical uncertainty remains high.

Regarding the factors controlling the price, the dollar plays a major role — its weakness boosts gold, and its strength puts pressure on it. Also, interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve are very important. Demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains strong despite volatility.

If you’re thinking of entering now, it’s important to set your goals first. Do you want to protect your savings from inflation? Or diversify your portfolio? Or short-term speculation? Because each strategy is different. Long-term investment in gold or bullion is safer but slower in returns. On the other hand, contracts for difference (CFDs) give you greater flexibility for daily trading, but with higher risks, especially with leverage.

The last point: gold forecasts for the upcoming period look positive, but everything depends on what central banks and monetary policies will do. Any tightening by the Fed could change the game quickly. So, focus on studying the market well before making any decision, and remember that discipline and patience are the keys to success in any investment.