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Oil Prices Strengthen Following Critical Warning on Global Supply
**Crude Oil Focus:**
The head of the IEA warns that commercial oil inventories are thinning rapidly, with only a few weeks left.
Trump announces the suspension of attacks on Iran following requests from leaders of the Persian Gulf allied countries.
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 — Oil prices this morning are seen moving bullishly, supported by sentiment stemming from the IEA warning about global oil inventory conditions, and signals of further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Even so, Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran dampened the price surge.
On Monday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that commercial oil inventories are running out very quickly amid the US–Iran war, and that under these conditions they are expected to last only a few weeks. Birol also added that the IEA has released 2.5 million barrels of oil per day into the market from strategic oil reserves, but emphasized that the IEA’s reserves are also limited.
Also supporting prices, Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, along with one jet squadron and air defense systems to Saudi Arabia as part of their joint defense pact. The situation suggests that the Iran war’s escalation is continuing and could potentially trigger a wider war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Monday that he canceled an attack on Iran planned for Tuesday after requests from leaders of the Persian Gulf allied countries, who asked for more time to find a diplomatic solution. Just a few hours after announcing the suspension, Trump also added that there is a very good chance the US can reach an agreement with Iran regarding Tehran’s nuclear weapons.
For the indicators closely watched by the market in the near term is the release of the weekly oil stock report in the API industry group version. This report usually serves as an early snapshot to gauge the direction of oil demand in the market, before the official government stock report is released.
From a technical standpoint, oil prices could meet the nearest resistance at $105 per barrel. However, if a negative catalyst occurs, prices could fall to the nearest support at $100 per barrel.