🔮 IPO Time Forecast: Nasdaq Listing on June 12

Based on multiple sources, SpaceX has locked in its IPO schedule for June 12. This milestone has been moved up substantially—what was originally planned for late June around Elon Musk’s birthday has now been compressed to a June 12 listing.

📅 Key Timeline

· Prospectus: Public filing as early as May 20 (today)
· Global Roadshow Launch: Kickoff as early as June 4, pitching this deal to global investors
· Final Pricing Date: Set as early as June 11
· Official Trading Start: Listed on Nasdaq as early as June 12, stock ticker “SPCX”

📊 Pricing and Valuation

· Target Valuation Range: $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion
· Expected Fundraising Scale: $70 billion to $80 billion, far exceeding Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29.4 billion
· Share Split Arrangement: Shareholders approved a 1-for-5 split proposal on May 15, adjusting the fair value per share from about $526.59 to about $105.32
· IPO Pricing Expectation: Private market share price around $100; the IPO offering price expected to be around $160

💡 Trading Strategy and Views

🔴 Optimistic Drivers

SpaceX accounts for more than 80% of global rocket launch share, and Starlink users have surpassed 10 million. Revenue in 2025 is estimated at about $11.4 billion, up 50% year over year. After a merger with xAI, its computing-power layout and equity structure will support its evolution toward “space AI infrastructure.” Meanwhile, a top-tier underwriting team (including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, etc.) will back the IPO. The estimated retail investor allocation percentage could be as high as 20% (far above the typical 10%), and combined with positive rumors such as BlackRock planning to invest $10 billion, it may form strong market buying power.

🟢 Risk Constraints

However, the data mismatch cannot be ignored—SpaceX recorded a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025, and rocket launches and the AI segment are still consuming large amounts of capital without achieving “self-sustaining cash generation.” A $2 trillion valuation target implies an estimated price-to-sales ratio of about 95 to 100 times, far above other tech giants such as Tesla. In addition, if the float is extremely small and it is quickly added into indices, it could trigger short-selling pressure alongside “structural short squeeze”-style volatility, resulting in highly unstable stock price movement. Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida and known as the “Mr. IPO,” has stated that if it were to go public at a $2 trillion valuation, he would choose to short it.

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