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The Fed just got a new chair. The market expects his first move to be a rate hike.
Inflation is heading to 6%. Wholesale prices up 6% annually. Gas up 21% in a single month. Iran is the match that lit it.
GDP grew 2% in Q1. Sounds fine. Dig deeper: consumers slowed, business investment carried it, almost entirely AI spending.
So the economy is being held up by one sector while the consumer weakens, energy prices spike, and the Fed has no room to cut.
S&P margins just hit an all-time record. 13.4%. The market is priced for perfection.
The last time inflation ran hot, a new Fed chair had to choose between the economy and credibility.
Warsh faces the same test. And he hasn't even started yet.