I’m now judging whether the project is serious or not—and I start by looking through the treasury expenditures first. It’s not about how much gets spent, but whether the spending looks like it’s actually driving milestones. For example, is the money going toward development/security audits/infrastructure, or is it just a pile of “market cooperation” and “ecosystem incentives,” with milestones always pushed to next quarter… To put it plainly: even if the first one moves slowly, you can still see the traces. The second one feels like it’s just dragging out the story.

Over the past couple of days, everyone in the group has been circulating rumors about stablecoin regulation, reserve audits, and all kinds of “we’re about to de-peg” talk. Once emotions run high, people tend to focus only on the candlestick charts. I do the opposite: the more they argue, the more I go check the on-chain ledger. At least then I can see when the treasury moves, who the money is sent to, and whether the spending is followed by actual delivery. You can’t fool that for too long.

A while back, I also followed an account with a “smooth narrative.” But after following it for a few weeks, I realized it was all reposts and slogans—ask about the project’s progress and they’d have no idea… So I just quietly unfollowed. Anyway, I’d rather stay a little cold and see them submit their work according to milestones. That’s it for now.