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When is the earliest possible time for the pace X IPO?
As for when the pace X IPO could be at the earliest, my bet is June 30, because SpaceX choosing to go public in June has strategic significance:
1.Seize the first-mover advantage in the market: If it successfully raises about $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, it would become the largest IPO in history, far exceeding Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29.4 billion;
2. Tie into the Nasdaq 100 Index quick-access rules: Going public in June allows it to be included in the index as early as possible, triggering passive fund buying and improving liquidity;
3. Elon Musk’s birthday timing: The original plan was around June 28 (his birthday), but it was moved up to June 12 to demonstrate resolute execution;
4. Market predictions validated by the market: As of now, the market assigns a pricing probability of 74 to “the pace X IPO being completed before June 30.”
My betting strategy is to hedge risk by placing bets on both June 30 and September 30, and to buy the dip when the probability is lower to capture swing returns.