#TradFi交易分享挑战

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The aerospace giant SpaceX is accelerating its IPO process. When is the earliest possible date for SpaceX's IPO? My bet is September 30th, for the following reasons:

‌1. Regulatory approval involves substantial uncertainties‌

‌SEC scrutiny of sensitive technologies‌

SpaceX's Starlink military applications (such as on the Ukrainian battlefield) and satellite spectrum sovereignty disputes (recently approved by the U.S. FCC for 65MHz spectrum, causing international disputes) may trigger additional reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) or the Department of Defense. If regulators require supplementary disclosures about technical collaborations (e.g., the Starshield project), the process could be extended by 60-90 days.

‌Historical reference‌: In 2024, Arm's IPO was delayed by 3 months due to the UK government's intervention in chip technology export review.

‌2. Potential delays in technological milestones‌

‌Starship's 12th test flight not yet completed‌

The prospectus discloses that Starship development has cost over $15 billion, but the scheduled 12th orbital test flight was postponed from late May to early June due to fuel tank defects. If this test flight fails to achieve “full rocket recovery” (the previous 11 attempts had only a 36% success rate), investor confidence in cost control could be shaken, and underwriters might advise delaying the IPO.

‌Risks in mass production of Starlink V3 satellites‌

The new generation satellites require Starship launch (60 satellites per launch). If Starship is delayed, it will directly impact the deployment plan in the second half of 2026 — a key narrative supporting the $1.75 trillion valuation.

‌3. Market environment and timing window game‌

‌Federal Reserve policy shift sensitivity‌

Current market expectations suggest the FOMC meeting on September 18 may initiate a rate cut cycle. If SpaceX chooses to go public in September, it could leverage the liquidity easing environment to attract additional funds, especially to hedge against the high valuation volatility of tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 volatility rose to 23% in May).

‌Index inclusion rules game‌

Although Nasdaq has introduced a “fast-track” inclusion rule, the S&P 500 requires constituent companies to be profitable for four consecutive quarters (SpaceX is profitable only in its Starlink business). If the IPO is delayed until September, the Q3 2026 financial report (due in November) can pre-validate profitability sustainability, accelerating inclusion.

My betting strategy is to simultaneously bet on June 30 and September 30, hedge risks, and choose to bottom-fish at lower probability points to earn swing gains. $JPN225 $XAGUSD