#TradFi交易分享挑战

# Trump delays strike on Iran
Trump once again manipulates the minute-by-minute market? Announces attack on Iran then "withdraws" seconds later

On May 18th, Trump announced the resumption of military action against Iran, but immediately afterward, the social platform "Real Social" posted that, at the request of leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, the planned military strike on Iran scheduled for the 19th was postponed by "two to three days." The three countries believe the US-Iran agreement is "very close to being reached" and hope to buy time for diplomacy. Trump's move can be considered textbook-level, turning a negative into a positive, with international oil prices falling sharply, Bitcoin and gold rebounding together. Looking ahead, Little God of Wealth advises caution; the negative is just a "delay," not a "cancellation."

1. Assessment of the Possibility of a US-Iran Re-Engagement

Current core contradictions:

US demands: Require Iran to provide written guarantees to abandon nuclear weapons, permanently open the Strait of Hormuz, and accept international inspections.

Iran's stance: Insist that "negotiation ≠ surrender," refuse unilateral concessions, and demand the US lift sanctions and guarantee not to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Gulf states' mediation: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar actively mediate, believing the agreement is "close to being reached," but substantial differences still remain.

Judgment of the likelihood of war:

Short-term (within 72 hours): About 30%. If Iran refuses to provide written guarantees or block the strait, Trump says he will launch a "full-scale attack."

Medium-term (within 1 month): The probability rises to over 60%. Historical experience (referencing the March 2026 conflict) shows US-Iran negotiations are highly prone to collapse due to lack of trust.

Key variables: Whether Gulf states can propose a compromise; whether Iran accepts "phased denuclearization."

2. Potential Impact on International Financial Markets

(1) Crude oil market: Geopolitical premium fluctuations dominate

Immediate reaction:

Delay in strike causes Brent crude to drop over 2.4% in one day (trading below $110 on the morning of May 19), markets breathe a sigh of relief.

If hostilities reignite:

Hormuz Strait blockade: 20% of global oil transportation disrupted, Brent could surge to $120-150 per barrel (Goldman Sachs model).

Beneficiaries: Crude oil futures (SC, Brent), fuels, asphalt; bearish on airlines and logistics sectors.

Hedging strategies: Long crude oil futures and short airline stocks.

(2) Gold: The tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and interest rates

Current contradictions:

Safe-haven support: Rising geopolitical tensions boost gold buying, but US Treasury yields breaking 4.6% (a new high since 1999) suppress gold prices.

Scenario analysis:

War erupts: Gold may fall back to $4450-4500 per ounce;

Deal reached: Gold may surge to $4650-4750 per ounce.

Key observation: Whether global central banks' gold purchases (average 60 tons per month in 2026) can offset the pressure from high interest rates.

(3) Cryptocurrency: Strengthening of phased safe-haven attributes

Recent case (May 18th):

After the announcement of Trump's delay in strike, Bitcoin rebounded from 79,197 to 80,000 within an hour, with leveraged liquidations totaling $289 million.

Impact of renewed conflict:

In the short term, as an alternative to gold, attracting safe-haven funds, but volatility increases (±15% as normal);

If the Strait blockade impacts global supply chains, Bitcoin may decline in tandem with US stocks (liquidity crisis linkage).