The AI industry chain is accelerating at both ends

To keep it brief, focus only on both ends
Upstream DDR: Changxin Memory's IPO, likely to replicate CATL's price war in batteries, but the real industry chain is not a single-threaded 1-second K-line with 500 directions; everything takes time to happen. Memory shortages will gradually ease within 1-2 years, and supply growth will reverse to surpass demand growth.
HBM: Changxin's long-term existence is still not feasible for now. Since SK Hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia dare to abandon the consumer market, it’s primarily due to long-term agreements with strong penalty clauses, like LTAs, and more importantly, the technological moat.
Downstream, large model manufacturers are actively participating, consolidating efforts
1. OpenAI and Anthropic have respectively attracted PE and VC to establish joint ventures, automating business processes of these network-invested companies with AI, recruiting talent, and boosting performance.
2. Google is extensively hiring AI on-site engineers, similar to Palantir’s model, to accelerate B2B application deployment.
3. Google and Blackstone have formed a joint venture Cloud company, leveraging Blackstone’s investment network to attract AI cloud clients.
If B2B and C2C customers actively subscribe to large models, that’s Farming; but the proactive approach of large models can be seen as Hunting.
Several hype scalers are issuing bonds worldwide to increase CapEx for computing infrastructure, but at the same time, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are actively attracting clients, starting to verify and realize the returns from B2B large models through Hunting.
Especially OpenAI and Anthropic need impressive numbers to support their future trillion-dollar market value.
In summary, the landlords are almost out of resources, just waiting for IPOs and bond issuance to keep pouring money in.
If B2B customer revenue and AI deployment are not ideal, the growth rate of large-scale AI investments could reverse, leading to a deep correction in the US stock market.
Invest in expectations, stay alert, stay safe