Browsing the NFT market these past couple of days feels a bit like watching ice on a pond: the floor price looks stable, but underneath there’s a whole layer of thin ice. Royalties are even more subtle—people say they support creators with their mouths, but when it actually comes time for trades, they still go first to the no-royalty pools. Once the narrative turns cold, liquidity recedes as fast as the tide pulling out.

When a project’s community is hot, the group chat is like a boiling hotpot, and the floor price seems to have “support.” But once the heat fades, the order walls instantly turn into paper. Recently, someone has been using RWA and U.S. Treasury yield to benchmark on-chain yield products—basically, everyone wants a slice of interest that looks “certain.” But what I care about more is this: when capital switches lanes, how much real buying demand is left on the NFT side—how much is genuine, and how much is leverage and people propping each other up… Anyway, I’m first watching those unusually active addresses, so I’m not fooled by the surface calm.