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Today’s Nikkei Stock Market Trend Analysis

Summary of Today’s Nikkei 225 Index Market

‌1. Market Trend‌

‌Overall Performance‌: Nikkei 225 Index futures (Contract 2606) showed a pattern of opening high and then declining, with oscillations downward, exhibiting significant volatility.

‌Key Prices‌:

‌Opening Price‌: 60,885.00 points;

‌Highest Price‌: 61,830.00 points (resistance during intraday rally);

‌Lowest Price‌: 60,675.00 points (intraday low);

‌Current Price‌: 60,776.20 points (as of 09:28:56);

‌Change‌: down 98.80 points, a decrease of -0.16%;

‌Amplitude‌: reached 1.90%, indicating intense battle between bulls and bears.

‌Background Brief‌: After an early high open, the index quickly rose to 61,830 points but failed to hold, then faced downward pressure to support at 60,675 points, currently consolidating around 60,776 points. Open interest is about 60.1k contracts, reflecting high market participation.

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2. Technical Indicator Analysis

‌MACD Indicators‌:

DIF Line: -64.72;

DEA Line: -62.15;

MACD Histogram: negative (DIF - DEA ≈ -2.57), in a bearish zone, suggesting short-term selling pressure dominates.

‌Momentum Signal‌: Price forming a downtrend channel on the 4-hour chart, combined with increased amplitude, indicates bearish momentum has not yet exhausted, but oversold risks are emerging.

‌Other Indicators‌: RSI is not directly provided, but MACD’s weakness points to potential further pullback.

3. Key Levels

First Support: 60,675 points

Second Support: 60,500 points

Third Support: 60,000 points

First Resistance: 61,830 points

Second Resistance: 62,000 points

Third Resistance: 62,500 points

‌4. Market Outlook‌

‌Short-term (1-3 days)‌:

‌Bearish Oscillation‌: MACD bearish signals and intraday rally-failure indicate dominance by bears. If support at 60,675 points is broken, a test of 60,500 points may occur.

‌Rebound Opportunity‌: Increased amplitude suggests division between bulls and bears. If the US dollar weakens or Asia-Pacific stocks rebound (e.g., Korea’s KOSPI today +0.31%), a technical rebound to resistance at 61,830 points could be triggered, but resistance at 62,000 points remains strong.

‌Mid-term‌:

‌Risk Factors‌: Hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (due to high CPI) may suppress global risk assets, potentially pressuring liquidity in Japanese stocks.

‌Potential Support‌: Continued easing policies by the Bank of Japan may provide buffer; watch for corporate earnings reports and geopolitical developments.

‌Strategy Advice‌: Investors should monitor the 60,675 support level; aggressive traders may consider light positions near 60,500 points for a long, with a stop-loss at 60,000 points; conservative investors should wait for a confirmed trend reversal above 62,000 points before entering.

5. Key Sector Focus - Technology Sector

‌Core Areas‌: Semiconductor equipment, electronic components, precision instruments, artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain.

‌Representative Companies‌: Tokyo Electron (semiconductor equipment), Advantest (chip testing), SoftBank Group (AI investments), Renesas Electronics (automotive chips).

‌Recent Drivers‌:

Global AI computing demand explosion, boosting Japanese semiconductor equipment and materials exports (e.g., HBM high-bandwidth memory industry chain);

In May 2026, SoftBank’s holdings in OpenAI surged 18% in a single day, and Tokyo Electron’s stock price increased over 40% this year. $JPN225 $XAGUSD $SOXL